Unitab prices are quoted as at 7.00pm Tuesday 31/01/12
Melbourne Victory v Gold Coast UnitedAurora Stadium (Launceston,Tasmania) 6:00 PM, Wed 01 Feb 2012
Melbourne Victory 1.95
Draw 3.40
Gold Coast United 3.65
History and Stats;
8 Matches between the 2 since the inception of the A-League and Melbourne Victory have had the better of it winning 5 to Gold Coasts' 3. Interesting that so far there hasn't been a draw.
Victory has won 3 out of it's 4 home matches against this rival and won 2 of 4 played up in Qld.
This game is to take place in Tasmania so the statistics are a little irrelevant perhaps.
Interesting that in the 5 A-League matches thus far played at neutral venues this season no more than 2 goals have been scored in the match.
Melbourne Victory sit 6 points ahead of Gold Coast on the A-League table but have played 1 more match. Both have the same goal difference (-6) with Victory having scored 4 more than Gold Coast but the latter has conceded 4 goals less. That adequately sums up the plight of both teams at present-
Gold Coast aren't scoring enough goals and Melbourne Victory are conceding too many.
Form Guide;
Melbourne Victory would surely prefer this game to be played in Melbourne where they haven't lost all season, whereas away from home they have lost their last 4 matches and conceded 12 goals in the process. That borders on pathetic! Not sure how they will fare in this one- Is it neither a Home game or an Away game for them as it being played in Launceston (Tasmania).
At the moment they exhibit a total inability to defend a lead, whether it be by 1 or 2 goals and when they concede a goal or goals in the first half they invariably lose.
New coach Magilton has had an inglorious initiation thus far with his team throwing away 2 half time leads which eventuated in draws and copping an absolute shallacking in the last Away clash in Perth.
His presence hasn't had the intended 'honeymoon' affect, and this game almost looks pivotal to his future at the club. After all it is against the cellar dwellars.
Gold Coast have lost their way of late after looking like they could mount some sort of a challenge for the Top 6. They have created a plethora of chances in their last 3 games but have only managed to score 3 times, only enough to obtain 1 point from a possible 9.
They have some very good young players who are extremely dangerous on the counter attack but influential midfielder Paul Beekmans won't play again this season and not sure whether experienced Dutch striker Maceo Rigters is back from injury for this one.
They have had 10 days to iron out their scoring woes and rest the legs a little so it will be interesting to see if Coach Miron Bleiberg has waved a magic wand for them.
Bet advice;
Don't bet odds on about Melbourne Victory winning this. It isn't a true home game, and you are likely to suffer something akin to a heart attack in the 2nd half particularly if they take anything less than a 3-0 lead into the break.
If odds on prevails they are worth laying, if you are that way inclined!
Consider betting Gold Coast if they drift from the $3.65 price quoted above. $3.75+ is worth an investment.
I'd really love to suggest taking under 2.5 goals to be scored in this match but only $1.75 is being offered up about that at present.
Although a draw is yet to eventuate between these 2 the fact that this is being played at a neutral venue just might prove the catalyst? I'd want $4 to create even minor interest in that investment though and that is a pipe dream at present.
Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix
HindmarshStadium 7:00 PM, Fri 03 Feb 2012
Adelaide United 2.35
Draw 3.30
Wellington Phoenix 2.85
History and Stats;
Aelaide Utd have a very good record in this fixture only once beaten by Wellington at Hindmarsh in 8 matches. Head to Head Adelaide also have the edge 7 wins to 3, with a further 5 draws between the 2 teams.
These 2 have met twice this season. The last was at Hindmarsh just over a month ago when Adelaide triumphed quite comfortably by a 2-0 scoreline. Prior to that both teams had played a 1-1 draw 'over the ditch' in Wellington on November 19. Interestingly Adelaide presented Wellington with an own goal in that match so in effect Wellington are yet to have one of their players score against Adelaide this season.
On the negative side though Adelaide have a poor goal scoring record at home this season with only 8 goals in 10 matches at Hindmarsh. Even worse they have conceded 15 to their opponents in that same time span.
That can be tempered a little when you look at Wellingtons' away form. Only 5 goals in 8 matches albeit a respectable 9 goals conceded. Quite pertinent also that they have managed to win their last 2 away matches 1-0 and got a massive 'monkey off their backs' in the process. Both those goals have been in the 2nd half though and they have only scored 2 away goals in the first half this season.
Similarly Adelaide have struggled to score goals in the first half at Hindmarsh this season. Only 2 from 11 games but at least one of them was against Wellington in that last meeting (Bruce Djite).
Wellington are 10 points ahead of Adelaide on the table and have a +6 goal difference. Adelaide are the worst defensive team in the competition and have a -13 goal difference.
Form Guide
Statistics tell one thing and current form quite another.
Wellington have won 4 of their last 5 matches with the only loss at home in atrocious conditions to a very late goal. And as mentioned they have won their last 2 away from home.
Conversely Adelaide are struggling, not having won in 5 matches, losing 2 of them.
Wellington come into this clash in a buoyant mood whereas Adelaide have their 3rd game in 9 days and come off a morale sapping 3-0 defeat to Perth at home, after some unbelievable profligacy in front of goal early on.
In fact it is now over 2 hours since Adelaide last scored in the match against Newcaslte where they also should have done a lot better. Add to that the 3-2 capitulation to the Mariners (after having the game almost in the bag at half time) 3 games ago snd you get the feeling that they just might be dangling off the end of a bungy rope with no assistance in sight!
Bet advice;
Difficult to know what to recommend in regards to picking the winner here. History tells you one thing but form suggests the opposite.
I really do like the chances of a low scoring encounter though looking at the home and away stats of both sides. Less than 2.5 goals in this game looks a really nice play- Adelaide are averaging less than 1 goal a game at home and Wellington less than 1 goal away from home. Odds aren't great about that yet but if $1.90 can be obtained it could be worth an investment.
And considering both teams struggle to score in the first half given these circumstances a 0-0 scoreline at halftime looks pretty realistic too.
I could get '' blown out of the water very early on here' with this kind of prediction but both options look a lot more appealing than merely trying to pick a winner at shortish prices.
Having said that statistics tell you that $2.35 odds (might actually drift) about a home team winning is generous enough to take. Personally I just don't want to, on a team that is down on form, below par at home this season, and up against currently the 2nd best team in the league.
Central Coast Mariners v Brisbane Roar
Bluetongue Stadium 4:30 PM, Sat 04 Feb 2012
Central Coast Mariners 2.15
Draw 3.25
Brisbane Roar 3.20
History and Stats;
In the last 11 games between the 2 Brisbane have dominated with 6 wins to CC's 2, and 3 draws.
Central Coast recorded their first victory over Brisbane in 9 games up at Suncorp stadium in mid December winning 2-1.
The 2 also met at Suncorp in Round 1 of this season with Brisbane coming up trumps 1-0.
Last season they had 6 clashes in total with Brisbane unbeaten and winning 4 of them. 3 times they came from behind to win though and incredibly from 2 goals down on two of those occasions.
Despite the overall disparity in results these 2 always have tight and very entertaining tussles as was the case in last years final series (Brisbane came from 2-0 down on two occasions) which shall never be forgotten by anybody that was lucky enough to witness it.
In those past 11 matches Central Coast have only played Brisbane at home 4 times and it is 5 games since they have taken on their arch enemy at home. Brisbane have won 3 and drawn 1 of those clashes.
This year Central Coast have lifted their game to a new level, sitting 7 points aloft at the top of the table with a game in hand. And 11 points in front of Brisbane with a game in hand.
They are now 15 games unbeaten and won 12 of them. And in their last 2 matches they have looked in grave danger of defeat, but managed to deliver the knockout blow quite late in the 2nd stanza.
Brisbane have faltered badly after a great start. After winning 6 and drawing 2 of their first 8 games they have only managed to win 2 of their last 11 with 3 draws, a somewhat stunning capitulation!
They have conceded the first goal 13 times in 19 matches this season, and in 13 of their last 16.
They haven't managed to win in their last 6 matches but have been very good value in drawing their last 3 it has to be said.
Form Guide;
It is now 14 days since the Central Coast played a match and that is pretty much without precedent in this League. They have been 2nd best for long periods in their last 2 matches but have found the resolve to keep their unbeaten run intact, the sign of a championship winning team.
Today they are severely weakened by the loss of Goalkeeper Matt Ryan, and 2 influential midfielders in Mustafa Amini (scored against Brisbane in last clash) and Oliver Bozanic (scored twice against Brisbane in last years final series), who are all away on Olyroo duty. Add to that the fact that talismanic Striker Matt Simon also played in the last clash between these 2 (now in Korea) and you realise that this CC side bears scant resemblance to the one that finally 'Vanquished the Demons' in Round 11 this season. Matt Ryans' absence is potentially critical considering his stellar form this season, and recent heroics, which have all bar won Central Coast maximum points in their past 2 games.
Brisbane come into this game after a very disappointing loss at home against their bogey side Newcastle Jets. They missed their top goalscorer (and the A-Leagues') Besart Berisha that night, still pretty much dominated the entire match, but failed to penetrate a resilient Jets defence. The wet surface probably didn't help their cause on the night and their continual problem of conceding early, cost them dearly in the final analysis.
Bet Advice;
In view of long term betting strategy Central Coast are value enough here for a Home team win.
Brisbane as the Away team are not.
Personally I'm throwing caution to the wind here though and am going to bet Brisbane to win, as they are at close to full strength, have played more recently, and have a very good record against the Central Coast at Bluetongue Stadium. This is a crucial game for them in the chase for top spot this year and they have to beat CC to have any hope of hauling them in. This is almost a Grand Final for them and they have so often come up trumps against the same opposition given a similar scenario. I'm tipping them to return to their very best here against a weakened opposition. The 'Draw No Bet' option looks particularly appealing at reasonable $2.30 odds.
The chances of them having to come from behind are very high though so Central Coast to score first could be a good play, as is the "Come from behind to win" scenario for Brisbane.
Whatever happens this is almost certainly going to be another Blockbuster of a clash between these 2 sides. May the best team win!
Melbourne Heart v Melbourne Victory
AAMI Park 6:45 PM, Sat 04 Feb 2012
Melbourne Heart 2.40
Draw 3.30
Melbourne Victory 2.75
History and Stats;
5 matches between these 2 and Melbourne Heart lead the Head to Head winning 2 to Victorys' 1 with 2 draws. The last match between them back in December saw Heart as convincing winners with the 3-2 scoreline very flattering to the Victory who claimed a late consolation goal and scored early on in the match.
15 goals have been scored in this fixture between the 2 which averages at 3 goals per game, perhaps an important stat to remember.
Form Guide;
Both teams come into this clash with very questionable form. Heart haven't won in 6 games now after looking like Championship contenders before that. Victory lurch from one disaster to another with only 1 win from 8 and a total inability to hold a winning lead in the latter stages of their matches.
Victory will be absolutely desperate for the points here being 5 points behind their arch rival and in grave danger of slipping out of finals contention. They face a depleted Heart side who now suffer the loss of their influental vice captain Matt Thompson on top of 3 of their regular youngsters who are away on Olyroo duty. Captain Fred is of course on the long term injury list and he was probably man of the match the last time these 2 met. The only real influential Heart players left from that impressive performance against Victory earlier in the season are Eli Babalj & Micheal Marrone so there are no excuses for Victory if they don't come away with all 3 points today.
Lucky for Victory this doesn't apply as an away game (being a local Derby and they do play here also) as there recent form in that regard is deplorable. A win here can all but erase the pain of Thursdays' embarrassing last minute capitulation and definitely kick start a finals push.
Having said that there seems to be little structure to the way Victory play and even less so since Jim Magilton became manager. Self belief hasn't improved and you can't keep blaming defeat on a lack of confidence as Magilton keeps espousing. They have many experienced players who have played at this level or better and one of them Harry Kewell is the only one really making an impression at the moment. The management is overly tense (not just Magilton) and that seems to be reflected on the field of play. And this being a Derby is unlikely to alleviate that tension.
Heart manager John Van't Schip however is a complete contrast. He is cool in a crisis, thoughtful and far more technical in his outlook. At times this season his team have looked without peer in regard to confidence and the ability to penetrate opposition defences. Whilst they are missing several key players today the ones he has left are more than capable of filling the gaps as Jonaton Germano and Alex Terra proved recently against Central Coast. And young Babalj up front tore Victory apart in that last game and is overdue for a big performance. I'd expect experienced campaigners Paul Reid and Simon Colossimo to get some major game time here, so it could be argued that the team they have out on the park will have more of that than recent squads.
Aziz Behich is a major loss at Left back though and probably irreplaceable in an attacking sense. That will cause a reshuffle and perhaps illicit a more cautious approach from Van't Schip.
Bet Advice;
Heart come into this match as Favourites but I'm damn sure they don't see it that way, and realistically recent form and player inability suggests that perhaps the odds should be in Victorys' favour.
But Heart seem capable of lifting massively when they play their arch rival and I wouldn't expect any deviation today.
A lot might depend on whether Carlos Hernandez gets some game time for Victory. He was superb in a losing side the last time these 2 met but has fallen out of favour with the new regime, probably due to a perceived lack of work effort. He is needed today though to match the adventurous nature of the opposition.
If Hernandez plays I'm tipping a draw, otherwise I'm inlcined to stick with the Heart.
The price about a Home team winning (even though it's a Derby) is more than acceptable.
3 goals or more in the match looks a decent play and perhaps Victory to score first also.
Sydney FC v Newcastle Jets Sydney Football Stadium 4:00 PM, Sun 05 Feb 2012
Sydney FC 1.95
Draw 3.40
Newcastle Jets 3.60
History and Stats;
Newcastle have an absolutely deplorable head to head record against Sydney winning only 3 and drawing 6 of their 21 encounters. And at this venue they have only managed to win once from 9 starts, though at least the win did occur in their 2nd last encounter.
Sydney though have some very average form at home this season only winning 2 out of 7 at the SFS, and both have been against the current Cellar Dwellars, Gold Coast Utd.
They have a nasty habit of conceding first in games this season (11 times) and the 10 day break leading into this game might not help in that regard.
Of their 6 winning effort this year only 1 has been by more than 1 goal. That was the massive upset against Brisbane where the wind was almost wholely responsible for goal No.2 and they failed to add to their lead in the remaining 70 minutes.
Newcastle finally broke their dreadful Away 'duck' this season against Brisbane, once again proving they are the nemesis for that team at their home base. That followed a come behind draw on the road against Adelaide at Bathurst and a respectable 2-1 loss to Melbourne Victory at Etihad where they probably finished off the stronger of the 2 teams. So in reality there has been improvement in their away form of late.
Form Guide;
As mentioned Sydney come into this game off a 10 day break, slightly longer an absence than desired perhaps and something that proved fatal for the league leaders yesterday (albeit that was 14 days).
They should be reasonably confident though given a get out of jail performance against Melbourne Victory from 2-0 down and a come from behind win against Gold Coast in their prior match at this venue.
They have 2 youngsters away on Olyroo duty though and there is some doubt about their marquee signing Brett Emerton making the starting eleven; if at all with a troublesome hamstring injury.
Newcastle come into this with probably their most positive mind set all season after that morale boosting win against the defending League champions. Unlike their opponents they are pretty much at full strength despite the loss of Kanterovski to the Olyroos. They have capable players to fill his spot though and it shouldn't upset their rhythm too much. They started well up at Suncorp scoring first and may well do so here against an opponent who could be a bit 'rusty' early on. They showed in the last match that they can hold a lead and Sydney don't have quite the same potency in attack as Brisbane do.
That said Sydney do have great reslilience if required as shown in their past 2 outings.
Bet Advice;
Don't come into Sydney FC at the odds on quote they are here. Rarely is that short a price any value whatsoever in this league and the disparity in odds between these 2 is way too wide. If you had to back Sydney perhaps you'd do it in 'come from behind' context here, where the odds are likely to be far more generous.
Newcastle on the other hand offer decent value for an away team with them likely to drift from that opening $3.60 price. They have an opportunity here, and the motivation to break into the Top 6 and do meet a Sydney team that is slighly vulnerable. There is mention of wet condiitons underfoot that should suit them (as it did up in Brisbane).
Given their hoodoo against Sydney though and the current resilience that side has on display this is more likely to be a very tight tussle that ends in a draw.
So it's either a deadlock or a Newcastle win at value for me.
Not expecting an open game but hopefully it is close and has it's fair share of drama.
Perth Glory v Gold Coast United 9:05 PM, Mon 06 Feb 2012
Perth Glory 1.73
Draw 3.50
Gold Coast United 4.60
History and Stats;
7 Matches between these 2 with Gold Coast clearly on top 4 wins to Perths' 1 with 1 draw. Perhaps significantly though the Perth 2-0 win was attained the last time these 2 met and it was at this Stadium, albeit on the back of 2 gift wrapped penalties.Overall in this fixture Gold Coast still have the better of it, winning 2, losing 1 and drawing 1.
Perth are now unbeaten in 7 matches, winning 4 of them.They have scored 6 goals in their last 2 home matches.
In contrast Gold Coast have only won 1 of their last 7, lost 3 (all by 1 goal) and drawn 3.
Perth sit 13 points clear of Gold Coast on the points table and have a +1 goal difference as opposed to -6 in the case of the Queenslanders.
Form Guide;
Perth are currently the form team of the competition. 2 months ago they were in a state of utter turmoil with owner Tony Sage threatening to leave the club and coach Ian Ferguson staring almost certain eviction in the face.
Since then the turnaround has been nothing short of amazing with the goals flowing, (a total of 15 in 7 matches) a new found resolve, and confidence soaring as a result. They have scored 3 or more goals 3 times in that 7 game span. Shane Smeltz has returned to something like his best and is currently the Leagues 2nd top scorer with 9 goals. But importantly the goals have been coming from several different sources.
Gold Coast surely come to Perth with a better mindset than when they last visited in early December last year. On that occasion they came with a depleted side and off the back of a frustrating loss to the same team (Melbourne Victory they met last week. But this time they got something out of the game, Michael Thwaite scoring very late in Franz Beckenbauer style to earn his side an arguably deserved draw. In the prior 2 matches they had struggled to make an impression late on in both games so the importance of the Thwaite goal against Melbourne could be significant in regards to morale for todays' match and in self belief for the rest of the season. A loss in that game would probably have meant 'curtains' for them this season.
They are likely to concede a lot of possession in this match but that might just suit them. Their defence is capable of soaking up pressure (as it did in their last win against Brisbane), isn't anywhere near as fragile as some others in the League, and they certainly have capable players on the counter attack. Rarely have they been beaten by more than 1 goal this season.
Bet Advice;
Perth are deserved favourites for this but at long odds on I can only reiterate that you not take it! Twice this round that assumption has proved correct. This competition has a salary cap and despite the disparity between these 2 on the League Table the reality is that there is little between any of the teams in this competition on a given day. Perth are perhaps due for a bit of a downer and Gold Coast at least come here off the back of morale boost.
Gold Coast have a good Head to Head record against this opponent and should be keen to put things right after a sloppy effort the last time they ventured west.
They are drifting in the betting market, and a draw is also appealing. Both those options are where the value lies and perhaps half staking them is the way to go.
Not a lot of confidence in the assessment as Perth are in such good form and generally reliable at home, but hopefully 'fortune favours the brave'.
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