A-League Round 15

Adelaide United v Brisbane Roar Hindmarsh Stadium 2012-01-07T06:35:00 1 4:35 PM, Sat 07 Jan 2012

Adelaide United 3.10
Draw 3.35
Brisbane Roar 2.15

Stats;

Brisbane have beaten Adelaide at last 3 meetings, 12 goals for and only 2 against. Overall Adelaide have a 3-2 win record against Brisbane at home but have lost 2 of their last 3.

Brisbane has the better Head to Head record Home and away 6 wins compared to 4.
3 wins, 3 losses and 2 draws for Adelaide at home this season but 1/1 with Kosmina.

Brisbane have 2 wins, 3 losses and 2 draws from their 7 away games but
haven't won in their last 4, losing 3 and drawing 1.

Form;

Adelaide are currently riding high and would probably rank as the 2nd best team in the competition right now going on recent performances. You may as well forget their form before Kosmina returned as this is a far more resilient outfit. But the last 3 games will mean zip here if they once again succumb to a Brisbane side that has caused them massive embarassment in their last 2 matches albeit away from home. You can bet Kosmina will be talking about 'exorcising the demons' and his players should respond here with determination.

Brisbane are still not quite firing as they can and that away record is becoming a bit of a concern.
Incredibly too they have conceded the first goal in 7 consecutive games, in 8 of the past 9 matches and 9 times out of 15 this season. They even conceded first in that 7-1 rout of Adelaide back in Round 4. Reportedly fresh legs coming in for todays' game and not sure that is ideal against an Adelaide outfit that is reaping the results of new found stability and a more positive frame of mind.


Prediction:

 I really think Adelaide can get away with this one. They have some boisterous home support and now that they are back in form that could well be worth a goal to them, possibly the difference in this game. If you like a bet the odds are very good for a home side that is in form. 



Melbourne Victory v Newcastle Jets AAMI Park 2012-01-07T08:45:00 1 6:45 PM, Sat 07 Jan 2012

Melbourne Victory 1.70
Draw 3.50
Newcastle Jets 4.75

Stats;

Last time these 2 met Jets won at home 3-1 December 3 2011

Newcastle have better head to head record between the 2 but
haven't won in last 4 attempts away to Melbourne.

Newcastle are yet to win away from home in 6 attempts this year.

Victory are unbeaten from 7 at home this year but have only won 2.

Form;

Melbourne have parted company with coach Mehmet Durakovic which is hardly surprising. Yet again in Football we see a club that doesn't have things in order in the boardroom, corresponding to below par efforts on the field. There have been 2 other recent managerial losses to the Victory in the shape of Gary Cole & Francis Awaritife this season, and the appointment of coach Durakovic was always likely to be a risky one given his lack of experience and exposure to coaching at this level.
As yet a new coach hasn't been appointed, but is likely to be announced before the game. I think that is probably too late to use as motivation for the performance today, even with Kevin Muscat taking the reins as caretaker.
They are still struggling to get their best out of an ageing squad and the quick turnaround from Wednesday seems hardly likely to aid their cause. They need to introduce some youngsters into the squad fairly quickly if they hope to get anything out of this season. And there did seem to be a couple of capable prospects on show against LA Galaxy a month or so ago who haven't been given an opportunity, a bit of an inditement on Mehmets' rein in my opinion.
Their home crowd is definitely worth a goal though and  their results at Etihad this season bely their overall standing in the League.

Newcastle are still a work in progress but are coming off a positive result at home where they overcame a determined Gold Coast side, who had recovered a 2 goal deficit in the 2nd half. Shortly after the equaliser Newcastle scored again proving they have a bit of belief and resilience. Had they drawn, or, unthinkably lost that match it really could have meant 'curtains'to their season and coach Van Egmont would really have been in the firing line. As it transpired though the result really could be the making of this team, and possibly the turning point in a stuttering season thus far.
Van Egmont returned to his favoured formation there and plans to stick to it for the rest of the season.
Plans are in in place for this match with a few younger and quicker players likely to be employed to combat the attacking menace of Victory. Pressing high in defence and giving Victory no time on the ball are the priorities.

Prediction;

The Newcastle tactics just might work here against a Victory side in a bit of turmoil and with some tired, ageing legs on show. The home crowd is likely to give them a goal boost though and it has to be remembered that Newcastles' away form is very ordinary. If Newcastle can play a 'spoiling' game effectively though they can get at least a point of this encounter, and they do have 2 of the competitions' leading scorers up front in the shape of Ryan Griffiths and Jeremy Brockie ready to pounce on a thus far ineffective Melbourne defence.
From a betting perspective it would be a poor decision to back Victory to win at cramped odds in my opinion.
I reckon a draw is most likely but if I had to pick a winner I would be keener on an upset.


Wellington Phoenix v Perth Glory New Zealand 2012-01-08T03:05:00 1 1:05 PM, Sun 08 Jan 2012

Wellington Phoenix 1.65
Draw 3.60
Perth Glory 5.00

Stats;

Wellington have 6 wins and 2 draws overall in this fixture from 8 games played between the 2.

1-0 Wellington in December 2011 the last time these 2 met.

6 wins, 2 losses and a draw for Wellington at home this season and they have won their last 5 at home.

1 win from 7 for Perth away from home this season but that was back in Round 2. 4 losses and 2 draws since.

Form;

As I said before their last game against Sydney this Wellington team have been in good consistent form for some time now. And now they have talismanic striker Paul Ifill to call upon also, possibly for a starting berth. They are faultless at home and are serious finals contenders with the squad and depth they have available.

For Perth this will be another backs to the wall type game for them and an agressive attitude against Brisbane really paid off. But once again they have an unsettled line up with the probable big loss of Billy Mehmet due to an injury he picked up against Brisbane. He has been their most influential player of late and will be sorely missed.

Prediction;

Very hard to tip against Wellington here. Possibly the only danger to them is the fact they have played more games than any other team in the league of late. Winning breeds confidence though and should overcome the fatigue factor. They are pretty much unbackable at odds on though so perhaps a 2+  goal margin would be worth an investment.


Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners Sydney Football Stadium 3:05 PM, Sun 08 Jan 2012

Sydney FC 2.80
Draw 3.25
Central Coast Mariners 2.40 

Stats;


In 11 fixtures between these 2 Sydney FC have never beaten Central Coast by more than 1 goal.

Last fixture was a 2-3 loss for them. 6 wins, 4 losses and 2 draws in this fixture overall for Sydney FC.

1 win, 3 losses and 1 draw for Sydney at SFS this year.

Central Coast are unbeaten in 11 games and have won their last 5 away games!

Form;

Sydney are really struggling to rise above a description of 'mediocre' this season and their form at the SFS doesn't inspire confidence either. The big bonus for them here is the return of Nick Carle who is yet to play in a losing match for them this season. And he is probably the only reason Sydney aren't propping up the bottom of the ladder due to some crucial late goals earlier in the Comp.
They have conceded 10 goals in their last 3 matches though, so it seems their current problems are more due to defensive frailty, rather than in attack, so it probably matters little they have probably their most potent attacking force to call upon.

Central Coast are the yardstick of the competition right now as indicated by the 6 point lead they have now opened up on the rest of the field. The only real negative I can see is that they now have to fill the void left by their top goalscorer Matt Simon who scored both goals against Victory. And it was probably a good thing he did because CC were certainly profligate elsewhere that night missing quite a few chances to 'put the game to bed' a lot earlier than they did.
Having said that Matt Simon wasn't even on the scoresheet the last time these 2 met when 3 goals were put past the home team. And they have a wide spread of other players on their scoresheet this season, so more than likely the last game was an aberration.

Prediction;

Really expecting a spirited performance from Sydney here with their finals aspirations, or at least a top 4 spot rapidly dwindling away. At the moment though they don't seem quite capable of beating an opposition that are right at the top of their game.
I'm tipping Central Coast to win this but I don't think it will be my more than 1 goal.


Gold Coast United v Melbourne Heart Skilled Park  5:35 PM, Sun 08 Jan 2012

Gold Coast United 2.35 
Draw 3.35
Melbourne Heart 2.80


Stats;

4 Games between the 2 and honours even (2 Draws).
Melbourne Heart won this fixture back in November 2-1.

Gold Coast have been quite effective at home this year with only 1 loss from 5 games
and that was the game against Heart.

Heart have won last 3 games away from home. Overall 4 wins, 2 draws and
2 losses for them away from home this year. Only other away match off a home loss this year was a 0-0 draw against Melbourne Victory.

Form;

Gold Coast blotted their copybook last time conceding 3 goals against Newcastle after keeping their goal intact in 4 consecutive appearances before that. They were game in defeat though pegging back a 2 goal deficit in the 2nd half only to succumb a minute later to the eventual 'killer punch'.
You just wonder too whether the unavailability of the impressive youngster James Brown cost them at least a draw in that game. He is back for this one and his midfield/attacking partnership with Ben Halloran & the more experienced Maceo Rigters is quickly becoming one of the most lethal 'triumvirates' in the A-League (Mark Bosnich would like that one!). Ben Halloran in particular is really looking  a potential Socceroos player for the near future.
Melbourne Heart probably had an important wake up call against Adelaide on Wednesday. They weren't good enough early in that game which was played in trying conditions. Perhaps they missed a bit of leadership there with the loss of captain Fred and Matt Thompson strangely has been largely anonymous the past 2 matched in an attacking sense. I thought their second half performance against Adelaide was actually quite decent and had young Babalj put away a sitter around the 70 minute mark at 0-2 the game would have unfolded a little differently in all probability.
Their away form is good and with Fred back they are going to be hard to beat, particularly if they can rise to the occasion as they did in their previous 2 victories.

Prediction;

This is a tough call in reality. An improving Gold Coast team up against one of the competition pacesetters who have had a dip in form. Any result is possible here but I have picked Heart to win the competition this year and if they play to their capabilities with the return of their most influential player Fred, then they should have too many guns for the Gold Coast. But the home team can't be underestimated on recent performances, and, if at their best, are going to provide a very stern test.
Heart by 1 goal perhaps, but the odds about an away team actually winning off a home loss in recent times (in this League) aren't good