Another 5 matches to get excited about this weekend starting with the unofficial Derby between bitter rivals Melbourne Victory and Adelaide on Friday night at Etihad stadium, and ending with the Gold Coast Utd- Wellington clash on Sunday evening.
Betting markets strongly suggest that every home team will be winning this weekend, with only Gold Coast Utd 'in the black', but only just. Statistics over a number of years tell us that the Home team will only win between 45%-50% of the time so be sure to expect 1 or 2 upsets yet again this round. Whether that be Draws or Away wins is problematical, but between them historically, they do make up at least 50% of overall results.
Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United
Overall, Head to Head, Victory 14 wins Adelaide 8 wins.
Adelaide have won 3 of last 4 clashes with last meeting a 1-1 draw.
Prior to that Victory had won 10 in a row!
Last 2 with Victory at home- 1-1 draw and 1-4 to Adelaide.
Last 4 clashes Van Dyke and Barbiero have scored 5 goals between them.
Victory unbeaten at home this season, 3 wins and 5 draws.
Adelaide 3 draws and a win last 4 away games. Win was in last away match against
Melbourne Heart.
Cross border rivalry at it's best in this clash which rarely disappoints. There is more than just a little bit of added interest this time around with Victory under the tutelage of a new Manager/Coach in Jim Magilton, and the man Victory fans seem to love to hate, John Kosmina returning to Etihad with no doubt grand plans to rain on Magiltons' parade. Added to that Kossie and Kevin Muscat will renew acquaintances (this time on their respective benches) after perhaps the most infamous "bust up" in A-League history a few seasons ago whereby the Adelaide manager was sent flying backwards off his chair by on field player Muscat , who was apparently trying to retrieve the ball. If memory serves correct Kossie lost not only his temper in that incident, but also his most favoured possession of all- A cup full of coffee!
There would be no better prelude to this match than to see Muscat present Kossie with a cuppa prior to kick off, but I doubt that will happen. More likely it would be a glass half full!
Jim Magilton is talking in terms of taking it "day by day", and "week by week" with no "quick fix" and whilst that serves beautifully to release the pressure valve of expectation on himself, Victory fans (and Management perhaps) will be expecting instant success here in this match, especially considering they did win at home last week against Newcastle. As always the new Manager should evoke a very positive action from his players here, with 'slates wiped clean' and positions on the field potentially up for grabs. They were the better side last week against Newcastle and certainly deserved their win. It was their best defensive performance for some time and their form at Etihad this season has been very reliable, picking up points on every occasion. Captain Adrian Leijer is likely to return for this one which should add further stability to their defence.
Adelaide have reinvented themselves under Kosmina and should come to Melbourne with plenty of confidence, unbeaten in 4 games, and 'with the wood' on their arch enemy in their last 4 match ups. Perhaps significantly though Kosmina has not been at the helm in that period and Adelaide did lose an incredible 10 matches in a row prior to the recent 4 match recovery.
In my opinion Adelaide have rode their luck a bit in each of their past 4 performances. Their display against Brisbane last week was disappointing and they were extremely fortunate to get anything out of that game. If they employ similar 'sit back' tactics here their luck is very likely to run out, and a rejuventated Victory outfit will simply overrun them with a likely huge crowd willing them on.
Dario Vidosic has to be more influential this week and in general the whole Adelaide team will need to lift a notch to match it with their rivals.
I'm tipping Victory to win this one and it's definitely hard to see them losing it given all that has been spoken of above. Expectation can be a poison chalice though, and Adelaide might well revel in their underdog status.
Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle
25 matches between these two teams in the A-League.
9 wins to Central coast against 8 wins for Newcastle with 8 draws.
19 matches under 2.25 goals with only 6 matches with more goals than that.
Last match December 10, 2011 resulted in 2-0 home win to Mariners.
Mariners have won last 3 home matches in this fixture scoring 6 goals and conceding none.
Overall Central Coast have won 6 of their home fixtures against Newcastle, drawn 5 and lost 2.
Newcastle are yet to win away from home this season from 7 games and lost 6 of them.
Conversely Central Coast are unbeaten at home this season with 4 wins and 3 draws from 7 matches.
Historically, local Derby matches suggest very tight encounters and past statistics between these two indicate pretty much the same. At the moment though there isn't too much to suggest that the current disparity in league standings between these 2 sides is going to be breached any time soon. Central Coast are flying high whereas Newcastle Jets somewhat ironically, are yet to really takeoff. As stated before their game against Melbourne Victory 2 weeks ago CC are a team in the true sense of the word and are now unbeaten in 12 games. They started life last week without top goal scorer Matt Simon with some aplomb, and there always seems to be somebody ready to add their name to an already impressive tally of goalscorers this season. Last week it was Oliver Bozanic who became the 10th representative of an inexclusive club.
Newcastle Jets are currently hovering somewhere between steady improvement and 'Wooden Spoon' oblivion. It is extremely hard to be convinced by comments made by Manager Gary Van Egmont (better known as GVE) in relation to the club having a grand plan (aka Brisbane Roar) and the need to stick to his seemingly dictatorial doctrine players fitting into a formation rather than using a formation that suits the players he has. Winning seemingly isn't that important yet as long as the process is abided to. His claims last week (in the game against Melbourne Victory) of his team being the "Mainstays" and "We controlled it" can best be termed as 'deluded' to anyone who actually watched proceedings.
Arguably their most influential player Kasey Wehrman has now found himself on the outer after he seemingly made the mistake of disagreeing with the direction the club is taking and making his thoughts public, or at least that is what has been reported. So in contrast to the Mariners, team harmony at Newcastle may not be quite what it should be.
And neither is their form away from home, yet to win this season. One thing in their favour here is they don't have to travel far, but is was only roughly a month ago this same fixture was held and they came away a little deflated. They did beat Central Coast at home in Round 3 but 'a lot of water has passed under the bridge since then' with CC rising way above it and Newcastle struggling to fight against the current.
There is no doubt that Newcastle can make life hard for Central Coast in what is likely to be a well attended fixture for both teams. The best outcome for them on current form would seem to be a draw.
Wins are now becoming almost a necessity for Newcastle though and possibly even moreso for Van Egmont who probably needs to promote some self belief in his coaching style and prophecy. Otherwise those initials might soon spell something very different- Gone Very Early!
Best of luck to Gary and his players anyway. It would be great to see this young Newcastle side grow in confidence and find themselves in finals contention come next April. The A-League would be all the better for it I'm sure.
The biggest concern for Central Coast here is complacency or 'resting on their laurels'. But coach Graham Arnold seems exceptionally good at keeping his players grounded and their consistency this year owes much to giving due respect to their opposition. Given that I'm going for Central Coast to win this by at least 1 goal.
Brisbane Roar vs Sydney FC
Last 8 matches between the 2 and Brisbane have won 5 of them and drawn 1.
Of those 8 games only once has there been more than 2.25 goals scored.
Last 3 times this fixure has been played at Suncorp Brisbane has won 1-0 on each occasion.
In 8 games away this season Sydney have won 3, Drawn 3 and lost 2. Significantly the 2 losses
have been against Wellington, so on the mainland they are unbeaten from 6. Their away form
is significantly better than their away form and in fact they are the only team this year to
win an away game off a loss in their previous match.
Brisbane Roar look as though they will be back to full strength for this match with Thomas Broich and Henrique available for selection and you'd think both will get at least some game time.
At the time of writing there is some conjecture over whether top scorer Besart Berisha will play and despite the fact that he hasn't scored for some 7 weeks or so his omission would probably leave an even bigger hole than the one left by Broich in that same time period (Berishas' last goal was in fact scored in the last game Broich was present) as there is no obvious replacement. He says "that only God will stop me playing" but then again Ange Postecoglou is his boss and might well overrule anything that God might have to say, with one eye on the upcoming Asian Champions League in March!
Brisbane will be acutely aware of what Sydney did to them some 8 games ago in round 9 ending their amazing run of 36 games unbeaten. But whether they can combat the tactics that brought them undone that day is the lingering question, provided of course that Sydney FC can raise their game up to that standard once again. One has to consider too the unusual weather conditions that seemed to transpire against Brisbane at Kogarah that day, with a freak gust of wind almost wholly responsible for Sydneys' 2nd goal from a Brett Emerton inswinging corner. The ball was literally thrown into the goal without another player touching it. That withstanding Brisbane just 'weren't at the races' that day and Sydney came away deserved winner more or less as a result of their greater desire and tactical prowess.
Sydney need to find that sort of form again in a hurry because since that somewhat historic day they have only managed to win one match. It was away from home though against Newcastle and in general their form on the road this season has been better than their home form (especially at the SFS) for whatever reason. And they do seem to be a team that plays better when the expectations aren't as high on them as underdogs against seemingly better opposition. That was pretty much the case last week against League leader Central Coast, only going down by a solitary goal and pressing hard for an equaliser in the last 15 minutes.
They know what tactics are required to beat Brisbane ,and how hard they need to work to achieve that goal so it is just a matter of whether there is enough confidence in the camp at present to bring about another upset.
Given these 2 teams normally have low scoring encounters with only 1 or 2 goals deciding the outcome the disparity in betting markets is way too wide.
Brisbane will be expected to return to their very best here and that is a rather big ask just because 2 of their best players are coming back off lengthy spells on the sidelines. Both will almost certainly need a match or 2 to return to their very best.
So I see this match as a danger one for Brisbane in so much as there could be complacency in the camp (especially if Berisha plays) with the return of arguably their 2 best attacking players. That said they are a better team than Sydney and have won their last 3 matches against them at home. It wouldn't be surprising to see a 1-0 scoreline yet again but I'm tipping a 0-0 or 1-1 draw with a Sydney side capable of raising their game against better opposition, as they did the last time these 2 met.
But they will need to stop Brisbane playing out from the back and give Eric Paartalu far less time on the ball than Adelaide managed to last week, to be any chance at all in reality.
Melbourne Heart vs Perth Glory
5 matches between the 2 with 1 win each and 3 draws.
Last 2 matches this season between the 2 have resulted in a 2-1 away win to the away team.
Heart at home this season- 3 wins, 2 losses and a draw. They lost their last home match.
Perth away this season- 2 wins, 4 losses and 2 draws. They won their last away match last week across the
Tasman.
This fixture could well be called Melbourne (lack of) Heart vs Perth (returning to some former) Glory.
The Heart were absolutely disgraceful last week against the Gold Coast. Their lack of desire was palbable after they scored some 20 minutes into the first half. From there they pretty much 'parked the bus' and invited the opposition to equalise. The fact that took an eternity to happen says very little about Hearts' defensive resolve. It was more that fortune smiled upon them until that point, and, realistically, they were extremely lucky not to be on the receiving end of a decent drubbing.
To be fair they did create one or two scoring chances of their own that weren't taken, but Gold Coast overall deserved a lot better than the draw they got.
Captain Fred, clearly their lynchpin in midfield is definitely out for a month or so aggravating a groin injury in that match, and without him Heart would appear to be facing an uphill battle in the next 6 days or so, in which time they play 3 matches. They need to find a solution to Freds' absence, and their dip in form, and do it very quickly. I would imagine that Matt Thompson will take the Captains' armband. The added responsibility that comes with that will hopefully ignite a spark in him, because
Hearts' dip in form seems to have coincided with his lack of influence on the park, particularly in an attacking sense.
Perth are coming good at the right time to push for a finals place rather than the Authors' prediction of Wooden Spoon certainty! I missed their performance in Wellington last week which surely goes down as the upset of this A-League season. It seems that they deserved their victory, though perhaps the atrocious conditions played into their hands a little bit?
Coach Ferguson has made mention of the fact that 15 players in his squad are up for contract renewal, with that factor one of the keys to their recent resurgence. He also cites that he doesn't like to see players on long term contracts as they don't need to perform week in, week out. Interesting!
To my mind bringing this issue into the media is going to do nothing for team morale and could in fact become counter productive. The situation at Gold Coast United is even grimmer on that front if I understand it correctly, with no player on anything more than a 12 month contract. It's certainly worked a treat there, with them propping up the ladder, albeit some decent performances of late! I'm not sure it says a lot about the person at the helm if it takes contractual suffocation to motivate a player. I'm not a management guru by any means but one thing I did glean from said courses some 2 decades ago is that job security is far greater motivation, along with leadership that inspires. Worrying about whether you have a job at the club next year seems hardly ideal in view of long term success on the pitch. Ironically being on a short term contract could even suit some players and be counter productive to their current club. If they perform adequately they may be in a better position to move to a higher bidder, on a longer term contract that does offer job security.
Anyhow back to the game! Going on recent performances I find it almost impossible to tip Melbourne Heart to win this. Perth are playing better at the moment and are almost back to full strength. Gun striker Smeltz is fit again and this away match isn't as logistically difficult as their previous one. The whole contract situation is possibly added motivation in the short term and they are playing a side struggling for form, and not responsive to adversity at present.
Either Perth to win or a draw is my prediction. I haven't been right this week thus far though so that can be taken with a pinch of salt!
Gold Coast Utd vs Wellington Phoenix
7 matches between the 2 with honours even at 2 wins a piece and 3 draws.
2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss for Gold Coast in this fixture at home and Wellington have
only played Gold Coast twice on their side of the Tasman.
Wellington have not scored more than 1 goal in the 5 matches they have played at Skilled Park. 3 goals for 6 against.
Vice versa for Gold Coast of course.
Last match at Skilled Park October 9 2011 resulted in 1-1 draw.
In 6 away games this season Wellington are yet to win with 2 draws and 4 losses.
On the positive side 2 away games in Qld this season have resulted in 2 draws, both 1-1.
Gold Coast 6 games at home this season and only lost 1, with 2 wins and 3 draws.
As betting markets suggest this is the toughest game of the round to predict and personally I can't find a way to spit the two teams.
Gold Coast have been solid at home all season, whereas Wellington have been disappointing away from home. That suggests a Gold Coast win but the last meeting here very nearly went Wellingtons' way earlier this season with James Brown scoring late for the home team.
Gold Coast should have won last week and barring profligacy in front of goal certainly would have. They were denied by the woodwork on more than one occasion too, so perhaps fate will be kinder to them here given a similar performance.
Big Dylan Mcallister is back in contention for a starting berth too but regardless of whether he starts or not any appearance will add a different demension for them in attacking sense.
They have the ability in their squad all over the park which belies their current standing on the League table. But they need to start taking maximum points right now so poise in front of goal and more than just a modicum of self belief is going to be required in this match.
Wellington too have a very decent playing roster and a great ability to play attractive Football. For their sake hopefully the defeat against Perth was just a blip on the radar because Finals Football is well within their grasp this year and their performances over the past couple of months certainly warrants them attaining that status. In previous seasons they have tended to implode though and their away form this year hasn't been good enough to arrest the belief that it might happen again this time.
Paul Ifill is a key player for them, seems back to full fitness and should start this game rather than joining it off the bench. Alex Smith is also up for selection here and he has a point to prove after being overlooked by Miron Bleiberg before the season started. He has been influential when given his chance this season and could be similarly effective here.
If my research is correct only one team this year has managed to win an away game after a previous loss, either at home or away in that prior game, and that was Sydney FC in round 2 (they nearly did same last night!). That would make the prospect of Wellington winning here look rather remote especially given their dreadful away statistics. As I write this the rain is pouring down. That factor certainly didn't help Wellington last week and could well be an issue again.
Either a Gold Coast win or a Draw are the most likely outcomes here. Hard to see Wellington taking maximum points but I'm trusting they can bring something like their A game to the glitter strip which should be good enough to earn them a share of the spoils.
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