Adelaide Utd vs Newcastle Jets 25/01
History and Stats;
Note this game is being played at a neutral venue in Bathurst.
22 Matches between the 2 with Adelaide on top winning 9 compared to Newcastles' 6 with 7 draws.
Last time these two met was on 25/11/2011 in Adelaide where they played out a scoreless draw.
A 4 day turnaround here for Adelaide and the last time they attempted same beat Melbourne Heart 3-1 away from home only 4 games ago.
They lost their first game in 6 matches last Sunday against Central Coast and their first away game in 5. A bit unlucky to do so too.
Newcastle are yet to win away from home this season from 8 matches and 6 of them have been losses.
They aren't travelling interstate this time though and their last away match at Gosford against the competition leaders was an encouraging 1-1 draw. Their 2nd highest scorer Jeremy Brockie (6 goals) is yet to score away from home this season.
Both teams have a very similar overall goal difference with the same amount conceded but Newcastle have scored 1 more. Since John Kosmina took over Adleaide 6 matches ago they have goal difference of +3. In that same period Newcastle has a goal difference of -4.
Current Form;
Adelaide are a much more consistent team than they were some 6 weeks ago. Whilst they have ridden their luck at times conversely they can consider themselves a little bit unfortunate not to have at least come away with a draw from Gosford on Sunday afternoon against the competition front runners.
This is their 3rd game away from home in succession but they are performing above expectations and their home form is certainly inferior overall. The fact that they aren't playing this at Hindmarsh probably serves as no real hindrance in light of their recnt good run.
Newcastle were very disappointing at home against Wellington in what looked to be a very winnable game on paper. Their reliance on youth whilst admirable really isn't helping them get the desired results at present and questions still remain as to whether Gary Van Egmont has the capability to succeed with his 'Grand Plan' for the future. They have a small bonus here in regard to not having to travel interstate, and there is no advantage in that respect for their opposition.
Prediction;
I can't possibly tip Newcastle who let me down badly last week against Wellington. For mine they just don't have the squad or the coaching idelology to make the Finals this year and Adelaide are playing too consistently and have too many top grade players in form to tip against.
Quite possibly a draw could ensue if Newcastle lift their game but I'm tipping Adelaide here to win by at least a goal.
Doubtful there is any value at all in this game though looking at Betting Markets.
Melbourne Victory vs Sydney FC 26/01
History and Statistics;
22 matches have been played between the 2 with Melbourne Victory having slightly the better of it overall with 7 wins compared to 5. Draws are the most comon result though and 10 have eventuated between the 2.
In 12 corresponding fixtures over the years Victory have won 5, lost 3 and Drawn 4.
The last meeting between the 2 in October this season produced a 0-0 draw at Etihad stadium in Melbourne.
Melbourne Victory are still unbeaten at home this season from 8 matches but have won only 3 of them.
It has been 11 matches since Victory kept a clean sheet and in that time 23 goals have been scored against them. That averages out at slightly more than 2 goals a game.
Notable that only 8 have come in their last 6 home games with the other 15 from 5 away games in that period.
Although they have lost their past 2 away games Sydney have been decent away from home this season and probably more realiable then they have been at their SFS home ground. They were unlucky not to come away with at least a draw up at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane against the Roar in their last away performance which was a far better performance than Victory managed on New Years eve at the same ground.
Overall in 9 away matches this season Sydney have won 3, lost 3 and drawn 3. 12 points from a possible 27. But that is 1 point more than they have achieved at home (3 of those points achieved away from SFS) from the same amount of games.
Interesting that both teams have a very similar goal difference, both conceding 27 goals. Sydney have scored 1 more though and have won 2 more games, albeit losing 1 more than Melbourne.
Current Form;
Melbourne come into this off what can only be described as a season low. Conversely in can be argued that Sydney are off a season high after coming from behind to beat Gold Coast at the SFS last Sunday.
Whilst that was against the bottom side it was their first victory at the SFS for some time and it came off a short break, after a slightly disappointing draw against big improvers Perth Glory in very hot condititions at Campbelltown, which showed they have resilience, something sadly lacking in todays' opponents over the past 6 weeks or so.
Sydney have to overcome the loss of young playmaker Terry Antonis whilst Melbourne probably welcome back the influential Carlos Hernandez and have the probably addition of Mark Milligan to their defensive line up. That should eventually prove to be a key signing. Victorys' big problem of late, and possibly all season has been the left and right fullback positions. That was very evident against Perth on Sunday where both were beaten all ends up and 3 goals ensued. Milligan is a very good Central Defender, maybe not so much a full back, and (wherever he does play), may initially have trouble adapting back to the speed of the A-League, as opposed to the slower pace he has probably been experiencing in Asia. He is a very good player though and has impressed several times at International level.
Sydney have a bad habit of conceding first whilst Victory have a tendency to leak goals in the 2nd half upon fatiguing. A short back up and having the trip over and back from the West, after playing in trying conditions over there isn't going to help Victory in that regard. Quite possibly they will start slowly here and that will assist Sydney. And the fact that Sydney finished the game off so well against Gold Coast should give them the confidence to gain the desired result in the second half.
Prediction;
Very hard for me to tip Melbourne Victory here off such a resounding loss. It isn't common for a team in this League to bounce back in their next match and win after an effort as poor as that. And it has to be remembered that their previous game at home against Adelaide was hardly a confidence booster either where they conceded dominance in the 2nd half.
More likely they could play well enough to draw and keep their home record intact.
I just fancy though that the tension will be palpable for them, and that combined with second half fatigue might prove their undoing against a side that come to Melbourne with confidence, off a performance that just could represent the turning point for them this season.
Sydney by 1 goal but this should be a close one.
Gold Coast United vs Central Coast Mariners 27/01
History and Stats;
9 games between these 2 with Central Coast having their noses in front winning 3 to Gold Coasts' 2 with 4 draws.
The last 2 meetings have produced 2 draws only 2 goals and notable they have both been at Gosford and Central Coast have been massive favourites both times. This is their 3rd meeting this season.
Central Coast have only been beaten twice this season and are currently on a 15 match unbeaten run punctuated by an incredible 7 away wins in a row.
Gold Coast on the other hand are struggling to gain maximum points, having not won in their last 4 matches. At home this season they have played 7, won 2, drawn 3 and lost 2. On the positive side they haven't lost at home by more than 1 goal and only once conceded more than 1 goal.
Table positions suggest a massive gulf between the 2 teams. 26 points in fact. Central Coast have a +17 goal difference and sit atop the table whilst Gold Coast are at -6 and languishing at the foot.
Current Form;
Central Coast come to the Glitter strip with an air of invincibility about them. They have been 2nd best for large portions of their past 2 matches, yet still managed to find a way to win, thanks largely to the heroic acts of their custodian Matt Ryan. If not for him they would probably have gained only 1 point from those last 2 games rather than 6.
It's probably a strange thing to say but they probably have to lift a little bit for this game if they want to take maximum points home yet again.
Gold Coast just can't take a trick at the moment. Defensively they have been decent but their finishing has been ordinary, and they haven't finished their games off too well in their past 2 outings.
Not sure whether Maceo Rigters returns for this one but it would certainly be a bonus if he did ,with their other senior Striker Dylan McCallister on the longer term injury list.
Prediction;
Impossible to tip against Central Coast who are riding high atm and are likely to up their performance level considering they haven't been at their best in their past 2 games.
Gold Coast are a bit of a bogey team for them though and will fancy their chances a bit. The surface is likely to be rain affected and the conditions humid so their young and quick Midfielders/Strikers could make a nuisance of themselves in a must win game for them.
Central Coast to win for mine but probably by 1 goal which is not supported by the disparity in odds.
I thought the draw option might offer some value but even that is being kept safe at present @ $3.50 or thereabouts.
Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets 28/01
History and Stats;
18 games between the 2 since the inception of the A-League and honors are all even with 6 wins a piece and 6 draws.
Surprisingly Brisbane Roar have a terrible record in this fixture at home with only 1 win from 9 matches and 6 losses in total. They have drawn 2 and lost 1 of the last 3 encounters at home since Ange Postecoglou became coach in October 2009 though they did win their last clash at Newcastle in November last year which gave the said coach his first win over them.
Brisbane are unbeaten in 5 games now, winning 2 of them since that horror run where they lost 5 in a row.
Newcastle haven't won in 4 games, losing 2 of them. Only 3 goals in their past 4 games is a bit of a concern and their Away form this season is dysmal with no wins from 9, and only the 3 draws.
In the last 6 games though they have been pretty competitive, winning 1, drawing 3 and losing 2, but only by the 1 goal.
Current Form;
Newcastle are really struggling to make any impression in regard to making the Top 6 at seasons end. They played well in patches against Adelaide in Bathurst and really should have won the game after they scored the equalising goal in the 73rd minute, such was their overall dominance from that point on. Once again though they just seemed to lack the killer punch which separates a final contender from an also ran. In general the goals have dried up and they really need to find some scoring form from here on in.
Brisbane seem to have nearly recaptured their best form. An incredible win against Sydney at home followed up by a high class draw away from home against the impressive Melbourne Heart. Broich and Henrique should have reclaimed full fitness now and whilst both are perhaps a shade short of their best form ,their influence is likely to be greater in every game now till seasons end, barring injury of course.
Not 100% sure this game is going to go ahead and if it does the wet weather is going to make things a bit more difficult to play flowing Football, and that might bring the teams closer together than othrwise thought. Brisbane are without Berisha for the first time this season and that is a big loss, with no adequate replacement available. The talk is that Broich will slot right into his position but I doubt that (given his creative influence) and expect a slightly different tactical approach to the game even if it is only in regard to formation.
Prediction;
Brisbane are massive favourites to win this but the wet weather and loss of Berisha are certainly not ideal. Any complacency from them could also be fatal, though I have to say it is very hard to see Newcastle actually toppling them on current form, even though history suggests an upset is definitely a possibility.
Both teams like to play a similar style passing game and build from the back but Brisbane have evolved into that style of team whilst Newcastle are a work in progress on that front. If both employ those tactics tonight it will be an interesting sight on a wet Suncorp pitch! Newcastle just might be well advised to go Route 1 at times if they hope to bag all 3 points.
I'm tipping a draw though which is still 'going out on a limb' somewhat. It could be a frustrating night for a Brisbane team who would much prefer an ideal playing surface.
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Heart 29/01
History and Stats;
Only the 4 games between the 2 with honours even with Heart winning 2 (at home) and Wellington 1 with the other game a 2-2 draw in NZ.
Current Form;
Wellington have won their last 2 games away from home, a rarity for them after suffering their first Home defeat all season to Perth in atrocious weather conditions 3 matches ago.
Melbourne Heart are unbeaten in their last 4 Away matches, winning 3 of them. They have only lost 2 Away games this season. On the negative side they have failed to win in their past 4 matches, albeit their last 2 performances against the top 2 teams in the League have been outstanding.
Both sides come in to this game with the same goal difference of -4 with Heart the more prolific side and Wellington the better defensive unit.
Prediction;
Looks like another tight game. Wellington will be missing right fullback Manny Muscat who has been pretty influential for them of late, particularly in an attacking context.
I'm tipping Heart to win this but only just. If they are at their best they are more than a match for any side in this competition and their last 2 matches have certainly proved that.
Wellington are worth their 3rd spot on the table though and are a very tight knit group of players who respond exceptionally well at home.
Both these teams should make the final 6 this year but for mine Heart have slightly more quality all over the park, play pretty well away from home, and might be more desperate for a win today considering they will be losing a few key players to the Olympic squad after this game.
Adelaide Utd vs Perth Glory 29/01
22 Matches between these 2 and very little has separated them overall with 10 wins to Adelaide and 9 to Perth with a paltry 3 draws.
The last 11 matches between them have yielded a result either way and significantly the favoured side has saluted in 9 of the past 10. Adelaide are favourites today.
In this fixture at Home Adelaide have been very dominant. Out of 11 matches they have won 7, lost 3 and drawn 1.
Perth defeated Adelaide 1-0 at Home in the only clash this season between the two this season but that was way back in Round 1.
Current Form;
Adelaide have only lost once since John Kosmina took over as coach and that was a very meritorious 3-2 loss to league leaders Central Coast 2 games ago. They were slightly disappointing on Wednesday night at Bathurst where they looked the better side but eventually conceded their dominance of the match in the final 20 or so minutes, probably lucky not to lose it in that period.
At home this season they have been poor with 3 wins, 3 draws abd 3 losses from 9 games, though since Kossie was appointed they have a win and a draw against Brisbane Roar on their resume at Hindmarsh which indicates they are heading in the right direction.
They are scoring on a regular basis but still have the worst defensive record in the League.
Perth are probably the in form team of the competition right now unbeaten in their last 6 outings and winning 3 of them. Their last game against Melbourne Victory was definitely one of the best performances of this A-League season and the confidence levels will be sky high.
They are unbeaten in their last 4 Away matches winning 2 of them.
Prediction;
This game has draw written all over it but history suggests otherwise. I very much doubt that Perth have ever come to Adelaide in better form. That last win against Victory was just so impressive I have to lean their way in respect to a definitive outcome here. They have failed to score more than 2 goals in an away encounter this season though whilst Adelaide have scored at least one goal in every game since Kosmina took the reigns.
I'll go for Perth to win 2-1 but with little confidence looking at historical precedents, which probably suggest the win will go to Adelaide by perhaps that same score.
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