A-League Round 17

2 games to be played on Wednesday 16 January;

Sydney FC vs Perth Glory

History;

19 matches between these 2 with Sydney having far the better of it with 9 wins compared to Perths' 4 and 6 draws.

Sydney have won the past 5 times these two have met and Perth have failed to score in the last 4 of them.

Perth have beaten Sydney twice in Sydney from 8 games and lost 4 times.
At home Perth have only beaten Sydney once in 11 games!

The last meeting between these 2 in November ended in a 1-0 away win to Sydney.

Current Form;

Note this game is to be played at Campbelltown rather than the SFS which is probably a bonus for Sydney because their form at the latter stadium is strangely below par. The last home fixture played away from that ground was Sydneys best performance of the season when they defeated a then rampant Brisbane Roar 2-0 and ended their record breaking 36 match streak.

The come into this fixture  off 4 consecutive defeats and not having won in 5 matches. Interestingly they have played the same 4 teams as Perth have in the past 3 weeks or so. They of course have won none', whereas Perth have won 2 and drawn 1 with 1 loss. Results below;

Brisbane 2 Sydney 1
Sydney 0 Central Coast 1
Wellington 4 Sydney 2
Sydney 0 Melbourne Heart 4

Melbourne Heart 1 Perth 2
Wellington 0 Perth 1
Perth 3 Brisbane 3
Perth 1 Central Coast Mariners 3

These results look very damning for Sydney but it has to be said that their last 2 performances against the top 2 teams in the competition have been very good. They possibly could have got a point out of the Central Coast Mariners match and all but had Brisbane on toast, only to concede all points in the last 2 mintes of injury time. How they react after that match is anyones guess really.
Statistically the 4 matches above tell us that Sydney have only scored 3 goals and conceded 11 for a -8 goal difference, whilst Perth have scored 7 and conceded 7 for a 0 goal difference. Even more damning for Sydney.

Added to that Perth are "on a roll" full of confidence off the back of 2 away wins and will be aiming to make it 3 in a row here. That possibility would have been untenable a month ago, they were playing so poorly. And now Sydney find themselves in pretty much the same predicament. They are scoring way too few goals right now and conceding way too many. And that is surprising because they did have a goal difference of +2 before their last 4 matches and were probably the 2nd most consistent team in the competition behind Central Coast. Now it is -6, one goal inferior to Perth (-5) and they have become the least conistent team in the comp.

Interestingly too 7 of the points Sydney have attained this season have been the result of late goals scored from the 80th minute onward. They haven't managed to score one in that period in their past 5 matches. Does this suggest that they are now tiring late in games as opposed to earlier in the season?
Is fitness an issue or is it moreso mental fatigue/lack of confidence in their ability to finish a game off on a positive note?

Prediction;

The sheer unpredictability of this League suggests that Sydney FC are due to have a very positive outcome in this match, after a run of very poor results, albeit not much luck in their past 2 games. But they come up against a very in form Perth side who have suddenly bonded into a resilient unit, significantly away from home. It would be some feat if Perth could achieve 3 consecutive wins on the road but on current form that seems more likely than a Sydney win.
Sydney are very firm favourites but I just can't see how anybody can tip them (and as favourites!) until their current run of poor results is rectified. Absolutely no value at all for your punting dollar (if you are that way inclined).

Either a Draw or Perth to win for my money, and that is where the betting value lies.


Melbourne Heart vs Central Coast Mariners;

History and stats;



Only 4 games between these 2 with Central Coast having far the better of it with 3 wins and a draw the last time these 2 met in an identical fixture.

Melbourne Heart have gone 4 games without a win whilst Central Coast are unbeaten in 13 and remarkably have won their last 6 away games.

Current Form;

Melbourne Heart are really struggling since captain Fred has been absent through injury. About the only thing I can find in their favour is the late start for this match as they have played in trying condtions in their past 3 games. Then again though so have their opposition.
The talent is certainly there and young Babalj up front had a ripper of a game last time out against Perth. Only a goalkeeping error made the difference in that game and the performance all round was a darn side better than what was on display in the previous 2 games. This could be a whole new world of pain for them though coming up against the most consistent team in the competition, who will relentlessly pursue victory to the bitter end in all likelihood.

Central Coast might be starting to find life a little more difficult now that they no longer  have talismanic Striker Matt Simon, but they still seem to be able to find goals from elsewhere on the park and their busy midfielders are always keeping defences on the hop. Their away form is phenomenol and anything less than a win here is going to be deemed as a failure. Graham Arnold will have them ready to go to battle again here.

Prediction;

Very hard to see Central Coast relinquishing full points here and they are highly favoured to win in betting markets which is no surprise given their consistency and lofty table position. If Melbourne Heart play to their ability and match the commitment of their opposition in this match they can possibly draw this one, but on form and statistics this really looks to be another great chance for Central Coast to come away with the spoils.




Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix 20/1

History and Stats;

15 games between the 2 and Wellington have fared far better winning 9 of them with only 2 draws.

Newcastle have not played Wellington at home in their past 4 matches and have lost all of them, scoring only 2 goals and conceding 12 times.

At home in this clash Newcastle have slightly the better of it with 3 wins, 2 losses and a draw from 6 matches. They have never beaten Wellington at home by more than 1 goal in normal time.

Newcastle have managed 5 wins this season and they have all been at home.

Wellington have only won 1 away match this season and that was their last performance against Gold Coast.


Current form;

Newcastle have definitely improved of late, beating Gold Coast, respectably beaten against Melbourne Victory and well worth their draw against league leaders Central Coast. Their overall  home form whilst not as good as it could be, is a darn side better than their away form. Their last effort (away) was arguably their best of the season and they should come into this match with a lot of confidence.
They have managed to score 3 goals on 3 occasions at home this year and will hope to do same here.

Wellington will be buoyed by their only away win this season against Gold Coast but it was a pretty fortuitous one. Most teams seem to struggle a bit when taking on Newcastle at home and they will probably need to lift a notch here to come away with all 3 points. They have a vastly experienced squad and a lot of quality in their ranks. Goals seem to flow out of that quality at home but on the road they struggle for the same output and haven't managed to score more than 1 in any away fixture this year.

Prediction;

This could go either way but I get the feeling that Newcastle will be a bit more desperate for the points than Wellington, and they are pretty effective at Ausgrid stadium. They have a youthful team and should finish this game off strongly at home and possibly overrun their opponents. As history suggests in this home fixture though, there has never been more than 1 goal separating the 2 teams, so a close match is very much on the cards. I'll go for a Newcastle win here by 2 goals to 1, and the current odds about a home team in reasonable form is acceptable.



Central Coast Mariners vs Adelaide Utd 21/01

History and stats;

20 games between the 2 since the A-League began and CC have slightly the better of it overall 8 wins to 6 with 6 draws.

7 matches though since Adelaide have been able to defeat Central Coast and the last clash between the 2 was back in early December 2011 was a cakewalk for the Mariners winning 4-0 away from home.

Central Coast are now unbeaten in 14 games, Adelaide unbeaten in their last 5 since new coach Kosmina took over, and in fact unbeaten in their last 5 away matches.


Current form;

Central Coast have certainly suffered a bit of a dip in form over their past 3 matches but you wouldn't know it looking at the results of their last 3 games with 2 wins and a draw. Since Matt Simon departed they haven't looked as lethal up front and but for the ingenuity shown by Michael McGlinchey in midfield, and the heroics of Mat Ryan in goal they may well have lost at least two of their last 3 matches.
Their players were 'flat' and totally ouplayed by Melbourne Heart on Wednesday night, yet they miraculously found the winner out of nothing with a couple of minutes left on the clock. But for their goalkeeper though they would have been well and truly buried before that.
They have to back up here and need to find a bit more energy than they did 3 days ago against a team that has found a new lease of life.
Although they are unbeaten at home this season their away form is actually superior. It seems the bumpy field at Bluetongue stadium isn't ideally suited to their style of play, so it does give away teams a bit of added hope.

Adelaide are proving tough for to beat for every team that meets them at present and coach Kosmina really has peformed a minor miracle in strengthening their resolve and improving the confidence levels. They have been behind in their last 2 matches but fought back strongly in the second half on both occasions. The 3 players they have in their attacking diamond (Van Dyke, Vidosic, Djite) are always going to produce problems for opposition defences and this time they have the added advantage of playing against a defence that might be a little more fatigued than usual. And their away form is actually better than their home form this year.

Prediction;

Hard to be overly confident in predicting that any team can get the better of Central Coast at present, but there are signs that it could happen in the near future, and they might be a bit vulnerable here given the short break between games, and their 'flat' performance on Wednesday.
They are ridiculously short in the betting at odds on with Adelaide at a juicy $4.75 to win. That is too much for me to resist and I'm going to tip a narrow win to the visitors, which would be a sizeable upset. CC's freak goalkeeper might have a bit to say about that!
Reasonably confident that Adelaide can get at least a draw in any case.


Melbourne Heart vs Brisbane Roar 21/01


History and Stats;

One again not a lot of history to look at with Melbourne Heart a fairly recent acquisition to the A-League.

4 games between the 2 and Brisbane had totally dominated proceedings until their last meeting when Heart upset the applecart at Suncorp Stadium. They were $6.50 to win that night with Brisbane Roar $1.44.

Heart are on a poor run atm losing 3 and drawing 1 of their last 4 matches. Before that they were unbeaten in 5 matches.

Interestingly in games Heart have played after kickoff time of 4.30 they have won 4 and drawn 3 of 7 .
In games of earlier start times they have only won 3 and drawn 3 of  10 matches with 4 losses.
Not sure there is much in that whole equation but at least you could say they are suited playing later in the day, and this one kicks off at 6.45p.m.

On the negative side Heart have lost their last 3 matches at home after winning their previous 3.

Brisbane Roar have failed to win in their last 5 away matches and have lost 3 of them. The last 2 have been draws though.
Similarly Brisbane seem to save their best form for Evening games with 7 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses after 4.45 as opposed to 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in games before that start time.


Current Form;

Melbourne Heart have had a miserable run of late mainly since the loss of their influential Captain Fred to injury. They were absolutlely superb against Central Coast on Wednesday night and having thought about that match since I'm absolutley comvinced that had any other Goalkeeper than Matt Ryan been between the posts for Central Coast, Heart would have scored at least 2 goals, meaning they would have won that match in all likelihood. Their total domination of that match had to be seen to be believed against the high flying league leaders ,and it seems they have overcome the lack of creativity that had plagued them since Freds' departure, with Jonaton Germano & Alex Terra supplying a cutting edge to their attack. Both have had very little playing time of late with the former injured since the win against Brisbane, and the latter normally only starting off the bench.
They need to erase the disappointment of Wednesday out of their Psyche for this game and if they do so are going to be very hard to beat. The quick backup could be a problem but Eli Babalj might return (a big bonus) and as mentioned Germano & Terra should be relatively fresh not having played a lot in recent times. Coach Van't Schip has mentioned that Brisbane are a much different team to Central Coast in regard to possession Football and tactics will be amended tonight to counter the retentive style of Brisbanes' play. They managed to overcome Brisbane the last time they met earlier this season so have every chance to do so again here.

Brisbane will be full of confidence after another "Houdini" performance last week in overcoming a resolute Sydney side ,who also had beaten them earlier in the season. Broich and Henrique returned there in the 2nd half and their mere presence seemed to once again provoke a minor miracle. Neither had a lot of direct influence, but both just seem to add a different dimension in attack and give oppositon defences a bit more to worry about. It will be interesting to see how both are employed in this match.
A lot will depend on whether Besart Berisha sits this one out or not after a one match ban was imposed on him earlier this week. Without his poaching instinct Brisbane could be found wanting in their final attacking third. They haven't been without him thus far this season and a massive hole will have to be filled by somebody largely unfamiliar to the role. And it could negate the positive effect of having their 2 creative most creative players back on the park.

Prediction;

I will be disappointed if this isn't one of the games of the season. I'm pretty convinced that Melbourne Heart are the most creative and penetrative team in this League ,and probably have the quickest players too which enables them to be so. They can really produce a shock wave in this match if they repeat their effort of Wednesday night.
But they have to overcome a team that have had their self belief reignited upon the return of arguably their 2 most creative influences.
I expect this one to go right to the wire. It could be dangerous if Heart are just content to sit back and counter attack, as Brisbane could make them pay early. If they are prepared to play a high defnsive line though and not give Brisbane a chance to get into their rhythm, then they could boss the game with the speed they have have to call on.
A high class draw is on the cards I feel but if Berisha doesn't play then I give Melbourne Heart the edge in this one.

Sydney FC vs Gold Coast United 22/01


History and Stats;

8 matches between the 2 with Gold Coast having the better of the clashes with 4 wins compared to Sydneys' 2, and 2 draws.

In this fixture at home though Sydney have 2 wins, 1 loss and 1 draw. This is the 3rd game between the 2 teams this season. The corresponding fixture in November ending in a rather fortuitous win to Sydney 3-2, whilst a 0-0 draw ensued up at Skilled Park some 5 weeks later.

Sydney have a very poor record at the SFS this year with only 1 win from 6 which includes 4 losses!
Gold Coast were very poor away from home earlier in the season but have arrested that problem in their last 3 games with a win, a draw and a meritorius 3-2 loss to Newcastle in their latest effort. And the draw was against league leaders Central Coast.

Current Form;

Both sides are really struggling to put points on the board but at least Sydney halted a 4 match losing streak against Perth on Wednesday, albeit the match ending disappointingly for them, conceding late.
They have been in control of both their last 2 encounters and let points slip which is exactly the opposite to what was happening earlier in the season.
They will most likely welcome back the controversial Pascal Bosschaart to their defensive lineup and the influential Nick Carle should be back to his peak now after missing a few matches during that losing streak.

Gold Coast are on probably more of a downer than even Sydney are at present. Despite their adventurous nature and creativity they have blown chance after chance in their last 2 matches and the confidence is suffering as a result. It is up to the senior players to help their impressive youngsters out of this mini slump but 3 of them are likely to miss this game, namely Paul Beekmans, Dylan McCallister and Maceo Rigters. The latter is still some hope of starting but even if he does he won't be fully fit. The other 2 are definitely out with McAllister a long term absentee.
The last time Beekmans missed an away game Gold Coast were very poor against Perth and significantly McAllister did score in the corresponding clash between these 2 in November.
It does give a couple of new players a chance though and ironically that could be a positive for Gold Coast if the changes can add something to their clinicalness in front of goal.

Prediction;

One can sense that his is a real D-day for Sydney in terms of their final aspirations this year. If they can't beat the bottom side that is down on their luck (and beset by injury) at home then you can just about write them off as contenders. The positive thing for them is that they have snapped their losing streak with that draw and in this League that invariably leads to a win next match.
On the flip side Gold Coast are really down on their confidence and winning away from home in that frame of mind is exceptionally hard to do historically. They are a more adventurous side than Sydney and have far more potential, but turning that potential into goals is the task facing Miron Bleiberg at present. I'm not sure this is the game for them to do it in, against a very experinced defence which includes Bosschaart, Beauchamp and McFlynn.

I give Sydney the edge here on current form. Not a lot wrong with their last 2 efforts and at least they have scored 2 in those past 2 games opposed to Gold Coast who have only scored one and butchered a plethora of chances whilst trying to.
They are at full strength and Gold Coast have significant changes in Personnel.

But would I take odds on about Sydney?

Not on your Nellie!


Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory 22/01

History and Stats;

19 matches between these 2 and honours are dead even with 7 wins each and 5 draws.
In 9 games at home in this corresponding fixture Perth have been dominant winning 6, drawing 1 and losing 2 both times by a single goal (1-2).

The last time these 2 met in Melbourne back in November Victory led 2-0 before a resurgent Perth stole a point with 2 second half goals, one in the 89th minute.

Perth are 5 games unbeaten coming into this clash. They have managed to score the last goal of the game in their past 4 matches.
They haven't won any of their past 3 home matches though, losing 2 before a spirited high scoring 3-3 draw against Brisbane in their last effort


Melbourne Victory have lost their past 4 away games and it's been 6 since they managed to win one. They have conceded 11 goals in that spell and only converted on 4 occasions. On the positive side they are unbeaten in their past 2 matches, albeit at home since the arrival of new coach Jim Magilton.

39 goals scored in the past 10 matches between these 2 so more than 3 goals in this match is a distinct possibility.

Current Form;

Perth are riding high and will take a lot of confidence out of 3 unbeaten away clashes (winning 2) and a new found ability to score 2nd half goals to decide results. Whilst their home form hasn't been flash in recent times they were struggling for form at the time and should be a different proposition in this clash. They have done a bit of travelling though of late and played in very hot conditions on Wednesday. They finished that game better than their opposition though so psychologically they should be "up" for this game, if not physically.

Conversely Melbourne need to improve away from home dramatically and stop conceding goals and territorial advantage in the 2nd half of their matches. New coach Magilton has had a bit more time to enforce his philosophy coming into this match and since Harry Kewell has been deployed to a midfield role the offensive side of Victorys'  game has improved significantly and their general play has a bit more structure.  But attack is not where their problems lie, it is more in their defensive reslience in structure where they have struggled all season and I'm not sure that Magilton will have the answers yet.

Prediction;

Hard to tip against Perth given recent results and history. Going on 2nd half performances of late they are going to get the better of Victory in the later stages of this game and the home crowd could prove decisive in the regard.
I'm not totally confident but I think Perth can edge this game and the odds about them ($2.40+) is very satisfactory given they a home team in form.