A-League Round 14

Non stop Football Wednesday January 4!;

Opening Betting Markets and times of matches

Wellington Phoenix v Sydney FC 12:00 PM, Wed 04 Jan 2012
 
Wellington Phoenix 2.15
Draw 3.35
Sydney FC 3.15

Stats;

A hard game to predict with Wellington a much better team at home and Sydney are adequate away and possibly won't mind getting away from the SFS where they haven't been too effective. Not sure they would relish the trip over the Tasman though as they have already been here this season and lost 2-1. That was their only defeat on the road this season.
The last 5 matches between the 2 have gone to the home side and strangely there has only been 1 draw between them from 14 matches and that was 13 games ago!
Sydney have the better head to head record with 8 wins to 5.

Form;

Wellington have been perfoming well for some time now and they were very unfortunate not to at least score a goal against Adelaide in their last match. In fact they barely deserved to lose it, almost sharing possession & having more of that in the opponents half.
They have won their last 4 games at home scoring 10 goals and only conceding 3.

Sydney conversely have been consistently inconsistent. They weren't as bad as the 4-0 scoreline suggests in their last match against Melbourne Heart but they were clinically taken apart at the back on nearly every occasion Heart threatened. There wasn't a lot of sustained pressure on them yet they were found wanting and there might well be sustained pressure in this match.
They are reasonably well placed on the table to push for a finals berth but a few of their earlier results were flattering due to scoring late goals. As the season has continued though they have lost that advantage (Fitness) and haven't run over the top of teams anymore. Nick Carle had been largely responsible for that happening and Sydney have gone backwards since his absence. He should be back for this one which is a big bonus but he is probably going to be a bit rusty and surely can't see out a full game. They will also be boosted by the return of their captain Terry McFlynn though.

Prediction: Wellington to win by 1 goal as I think they are going too well (overall) to tip against back at home.


Melbourne Heart v Adelaide United 2:15 PM, Wed 04 Jan 2012

Melbourne Heart 1.65
Draw 3.65
Adelaide United 5.00

Stats;

Not a lot between the 2 in the 4 matches they have played thus far. Adelaide won the first 2 (which you would kind of expect) but Heart won the next. The last time they met in early November a 1-1 draw ensued at Aami Park.

Form;

Melbourne Heart are absolutely flying having won their last 5 matches and averaged 2.5 goals in the process. They have been exceptional to watch in their past 2 matches especially in the ruthless and techincally efficient way they have disposed of their opponents. Coach Van't Schipp has laid claim to being the best coach in the League with his tactical prowess against Sydney last week. Sydney were running the show in midfield so he changed to 3 at the back and pushed another player into the engine room. That was a gutsy call that could have left them further exposed in defence but it paid off handsomely. In fact that was 'the end of the section' as they say.

Adelaide have drawn their last 3 matches and only lost 2 of their 6 away matches this year. One was a thrashing at the hands of Brisbane and the other was a narrow defeat in Perth, the graveyard of many a team. And now they are a more formidable outfit with the return of Messiah Kosmina.
Problem is this is a far sterner test of their resolve and in reality they were more than a bit fortunate last week not to concede on a couple of occasions. Had they been playing this opposition there is just no way they would have ended up victorious.
Funny what confidence can do though and Heart don't need to get complacent here against a side that now has it's tail up. Captain Fred is also going to be missing and he is possibly their most influential player.

Prediction- Heart to win but not by as much as current odds suggest. Odds on look on!


Newcastle Jets v Gold Coast United 4:30 PM, Wed 04 Jan 2012

Newcastle Jets 2.60
Draw 3.20
Gold Coast United 2.60

The home team are struggling whilst the Visitors are in really good form which means this could be a very even contest.

Stats;

Not much between these 2 on a historical basis. Gold Coast lead 4 games to 3 with only the 1 draw in 8 matches. Gold Coast have won the last 2 clashes between these 2 and pretty handsomely too 3-1 & 5-1. But they are yet to beat Newcastle at Ausgrid stadium from 3 attempts with Newcastle victors on each occasions.

Form;

Newcastle are really in the doldrums and their home form, so often their strongest asset, now appears to have deserted them with only one win from 4. I didn't see a great deal of their last match but from all reports they were very disappointing conceding early to an ordinary Perth outfit and then failing to take advantage of a man advantage with Mehmet sent off for Perth in the first half. They found an equaliser early in the 62nd minute which came well and truly early enough for them to go on and win but they failed pretty miserably. At a time that they need to show steady improvement they are instead in freefall.

Gold Coast on the other hand have been the big improvers of late.
Since Captain Michael Thwaite has been given free role in defence they have gone from whipping boys to not conceding a goal against tough opposition in 4 games, which is really quite staggering. And I might add a masterstroke by coach Miron Bleiberg who was enduring his fair share of criticism not too long ago. Their last 2 away games have been excellent with an M1 Derby win (little home advantage) over Brisbane Roar.
They really should be a decent team on the road as home attendances hardly offer a lot of inspiration not withstanding the loyal 'Beach' supporters squad who do their utmost and deserve better.
Their squad will be strengthened by the return of midfielder Beekmans and defender Rees, as if the defensive side of their game even needs a bonus right now!

Prediction: I think the Queenslanders can win this as they are meeting a very vulnerable Newcastle side who don't seem to have enough quality to dig themselves out of a widening hole. Probably only 1 goal in this one though and it might not be a high scoring game.


Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne Victory 6:45 PM, Wed 04 Jan 2012

Central Coast Mariners 1.70
Draw 3.40
Melbourne Victory 5.00

Central Coast are a team in the true sense of the word and the most consistent team in the competition. They are up against the what can only be descriibed as the most shambolic one in Melbourne Victory.


Stats;

This fixture has thrown up possibly the weirdest results I have ever seen. Quite obviously there is little point in following the form book when these 2 meet because in their last 7 clashes the favoured team has failed to win on any of those occasions. And when there is a large disparity in the odds the heavily favoured team most often fails spectacularly by 2 goals or more. There is quite a disparity here so surely it can't happen again?
Melbourne Victory have slightly the better record with 8 wins to 6 but these two  have also drawn on 5 occasions.
Noticeable too that these encounters are normally of the high scoring variety with more than twice as many matches eventuating in more than 2.25 goals rather than less.

Form;

The last time these 2 met it was in Gosford in Round 6 which ended in a 0-0 draw. Central Coast have now gone 10 matches without defeat but couldn't breach the Gold Coast defence last Saturday, a match I didn't witness. They have 3 wins and 3 draws from 6 games at home this season. Leading goalscorer Matt Simon has left for the Korean League and that definitely isn't a positive for them, but they have enough time to find a strike partner for their impressive youngster Bernie Abini, and it isn't as though they are a one trick pony. Far from it with 9 separate goalscorers so far this season.

Melbourne Victory were just awful in Brisbane on New Years Eve.
They got the perfect start scoring early through Harry Kewell and that was the filip they badly needed after being on the end of a resounding defeat against their arch rival the week before. From thereon though they were hugely disappointing, surrendering possession time after time to an equally profligate Roar midfield who eventually took control of the match at about the 30 minute mark. It took them another 13 minutes to make that advantage pay but by the time it transpired Victory looked 'as shot as a duck' possibly could. A goal very close to half time is quite often a killer blow but it was quite obvious to me that only a massacre could ensue. And that was pretty much the case until after Brisbane scored their 3rd whereby Victory suddenly decided they had better try and rescue some respectability. And they did to a certain extent. It is possible that the arrival of Grant Brebner off the bench was the catalyst. Just not sure because the midfield of Victory have gone missing most of the season regardless of who has been present.
And the most disappointing thing about the washup to this effort was coach Durakovic stating that he it was a decent performance by his team. Beggers belief really!

I'd hate to see them put in a bad one then and wouldn't advist them to do so in this match.

Prediction: Hard to tip against Central Coast here but the historical aspect between these 2 really has me intrigued. Apparently the field at Bluetongue is a bit bumpy too and that isn't exactly conducive to the home team who play a pretty attractive brand of Football, but probably suitable for the visitors if they are hungry enough to battle hard. Could a massive upset be looming again?




Perth Glory v Brisbane Roar 9:00 PM, Wed 04 Jan 2012

Perth Glory 3.40
Draw 3.35
Brisbane Roar 2.05 

A very unsettled home side up against a back in form team, who in the main are very settled.

Stats;

Since the 2009-2010 season these 2 sides have played 3 times in Perth with all 3 possible results ensuing. Brisbane won the last 1 though 2-1 and also decimated Perth at home quite recently with a 4-0 scoreline which gave them that fabulous 36 game record.

Form;

That defeat against Brisbane was embarassing for Perth and particularly their coach Ian Ferguson who seemingly forgot to tell his players that you simply can't hand over 90 minutes of possession to the other team and hope to get some sort of positive result. By half time it was 4-0 and only then did he introduce an attacking player with the ability to stem the tide. It bore some fruit but the result stayed the same.

Since then they have tightened up quite a bit but still only won 1 of their past 5 matches (at home against a generous Gold Coast) and that was their only win in their past 10 games also.
They have been beset by injury in recent times and it would certainly help if they could keep 11 men on the field, albeit Billy Mehmet should not have been ejected last night week, in what can only be described as an apalling decision by the officials. Staying disciplined in this game will be even more crucial to their chances.
Billy Mehmet has apparently gained a reprieve from last week, Shane Smeltz might return and young defender Josh Mitchell is also available. Surely some sort of boost for the confidence.

Brisbane had been horribly out of form but they just might have got the monkey off their back last Saturday with a resounding win against, it has to be said, a deplorable opposition. Coach Postecoglou made a decisive tactical change before the match moving Ivan Franjic to a right midfield spot and playing with a back 3. Maybe he watched the Heart game the other night??
Whatever, it worked a treat and Brisbane looked back to their best. The changes were also rung with Nakajima-Farran on the bench, Brattan getting his first start (I think) & Rocky Visconte given another chance. He took that chance with both hands (and one excellent left foot!) and it could be the turning point in this young blokes career. He has looked good at the start of games but gone missing a little bit, and he still needs to be a bit more positive in regard to his 'directness' on the ball, and with his passing. If he can rectify that, and increase in confidence, there is little doubt he is going to cause opposition defences a lot of problems.

Prediction: Brisbane should win this providing they follow up on what they achieved the other night, with said players continuing to step up to the plate.
Perth just don't have the arsenal to trouble Brisbane and must not fall into the trap of surrendering possession like they did in the last meeting between these 2. They have to try and pressure Brisbane otherwise this could be another rout. A draw would be a good result for them, but they will have to play out of their skin to acheive that in all probability.