A-League Round 13

Sydney FC versus Melbourne Heart 29/12



Super keen on Melbourne Heart to go on their winning way here.
They have lost only 1 of their past 10 matches and won their past 4. The latest was one of the most impressive performances I have ever seen in this League. On that effort they will win the competition this year. And it didn't seem flukeish in any way as they totally dominated the 2nd half winning with plenty in reserve. 2 in form players substituted quite early in that second stanza and they were still far too good.

Head to Head from 4 games Sydney are yet to record a win and they have never met a Heart team in such rare form. And the last time these 2 met at the SFS Heart came away victors 1-0.
Also Sydneys' form at the SFS this year isn't overly encouraging with only the 1 win from 4.

Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix 30/12

An intriguing match and possibly the toughest of the round to predict.
Adelaide have been pretty awful at home this season, particularly of late. In their last 3 matches they scored none and conceded 7 losing their last 2 by 4-0 and 3-0. Overall from 7 at home this year they look a bit more respectable with 2 wins,  2 draws and 3 losses. And the Messiah has returned in the form of John Kosmina with the performance level and belief lifting noticeably in the away clash last week against Sydney FC.

Whilst Adelaides' home form is poor the same can be said about Wellington Phoenix in an away context this season. 5 games on the road and yet to win, with their best efforts being 2 draws against Queensland opposition. They have only scored 3 goals and conceded 7 on the road.
They did win 1-0 at Hindmarsh last season albeit that result being reversed at the same stadium just 13 days later. On both occasions Adelaide were massively favoured to win.

Historically between the 2 teams Adelaide have had far the better of it over the years with twice as many wins (6 against 3) and Adelaide have triumphed 5 times from 7 attempts at Hindmarsh.

It seems they have Sergio Van Dyke returning to the lineup after missing a couple of matches. He is probably their most influential player and if he plays well then Adelaide will take some beating.
Jon McKain has been stripped of the Adelaide captaincy which has been handed to Eugene Galekovic.
And although he has overcome the injury which caused him to miss the Sydney match it seems as though Kosmina is sticking with his central defensive pairing from that match and will leave him out of the starting side. The coach has expressed concern about his form this season which more or less makes him the scapegoat for some poor recent results. And there is definitely some merit attached to that decision considering the fact that Adelaide have been awful defensively and he has presided over it.

Wellington have been one of the big improvers this year and come to Adelaide off the back of one of their most impressive wins ever last week, a 5-2 thrashing of Newcastle Jets. That could be a little misleading though as Newcastle have been poor away from home all season. Tony Lochead is back at left full back for them but the American Alex Smith will be missing and he has been quite influential for them in their past 2 matches.

You can bet that Adelaide are really going to 'up' for this clash with Kosmina calling the shots. Wellington can expect nothing less than a siege mentality from a Reds' side who owe their fans big time after recent poor efforts at home.
Some stoic resistance and a bit more attacking flair with the return of Sergio Van Dyke might just get Adleaide over the line here but I wouldn't want to be staking my life on it. Even a draw would be progress for an Adelaide side that have looked horrible at home in their past 3 matches. 

Prediction: Adelaide 2-1


Newcastle Jets vs Perth Glory 31/12

Both sides come into this clash on a real downer after 3 consecutive losses. They are remarkably
evenly matched looking at the league table stats. Both have 4 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses, the only thing separating them is the marginally worse goal difference for Newcastle (-8) as opposed to Perth (-7).
Newcastle are an interesting case study. At home they are a far better proposition. Although they have lost 2 of their last 3 both have only been by 1 goal to stronger opposition than they meet today, namely Sydney & Brisbane. They have won their other 4 matches  this year including a comfortable 2-0 result against todays opponent on November 5. Overall a +4 Goal difference.

When you take into account their away stats this year which read 0 wins and a -12 goal difference, you begin to realise how important it is for them to touch home base. They also have a few players returning to the starting lineup today, despite their Captain still missing. And Nicolai Topor-Stanley has been demoted to the bench after a personally, pretty awful defensive display last week, albeit hampered by injury. These changes in themselves should be a positive after a pretty lame effort last week against what must be said was a pretty clinical Wellington side, who are always difficult to beat at home. At least Newcastle still managed to score 2 goals.

Perth away from home aren't encouraging. Slightly better than Newcastle in that regard they can still only boast 1 win and 1 draw from 6 outings this year, with a goal difference of -7. As mentioned they were on the losing end here in November conceding 2 goals to Jeremy Brockie. Might he be their nemesis again?
It's hard to see where the goals are going to come from with prolific striker Shane Smelz having to miss this one. To be honest he hasn't been doing a lot for them of late but his absence still won't do a lot for the confidence. And they have a few other personnel changes too in key positions.

Very, very hard to tip anything but a Newcastle win in this one, but if you like a bet there is not a lot of value on offer. Odds on about a team that have lost their last 3 matches isn't ideal and I'd be expecting a pretty spirited display by Perth who really have their backs against the wall.

Prediction: Newcastle by 1 goal.




Central Coast Mariners vs Gold Coast United

Both teams are coming in with a lot of confidence, especially the table topping home side who have now won an impressive 6 in a row and are unbeaten in 10 matches. Gold Coast have turned their fortunes around with an easy away win against Adelaide, followed up by a deserved win against the out of form Brisbane Roar.

Central Coast are unbeaten at home this year with a +5 goal difference and their 22 goals this year have been spread across 9 players. That makes it pretty clear that they can hurt opposition teams from anywhere on the park.
They are unlikely to be complacent today as these 2 sides have already met at Gosford in October. It took until the 86th minute then for Central Coast to secure an equaliser through Patrick Zwaanswijk.
They have improved significantly since then of course but Gold Coast also have their tails up after 3 very decent performances.

From their point of view it is a pity that they have 2 players likely to miss this match, Paul Beekmans through suspension and Striker Dylan Mcallister with injury. The latter didn't hinder them significantly when he limped off midway through the first half against Brisbane, and it is quite likely that coach Bleiberg will revert to playing Maceo Rigters on his own in a striking role, which might actually advantage them in the context of an away game.
Beekmans has been useful for Gold Coast but I'd prefer to have him missing than his Dutch counterpart Jungschlager who was pretty impressive last week.

Just 1 win from 7 for Gold Coast away from home this year but that was in their last match against Adelaide. Overall they have a goal difference of -5 on the road and have conceded an average of 2 goals per game which they can't afford to do in this one. They need to keep it tight in defence, and to be fair they have certainly done so in their past 3 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 0. That seems to have coincided with a different system at the back since their impressive captain Michael Thwaite has been relieved of marking duties and given free reign. If they can continue this trend and give their attacking trio of Brown, Halloran and Rigters enough supply they are a realistic chance of causing an upset or forcing a draw.

These 2 teams generally have a tight contest. No doubt Central Coast will be keen to send departing K-League Stiker Matt Simon off with a win here, but will he have other things on his mind?
It is probably unwise to suggest anything other than a win for the high flying Central Coast but I doubt if it will be by more than one goal and they might be due for a downer against a side they failed to beat at home in Round 2. Can't quite summon the courage to predict a Gold Coast win but a Draw is a distinct possibility in my opinion.

Prediction: 1-1






.

Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory 31/12

Hard to believe that the Roar have suddenly become the easybeats of this comp. And Melbourne Victory always give them massive problems having far the better record Head to Head. Of the last 7 encounters Victory have won 3 and only lost 1. Last time they met Victoryy had to play most of the match with only 10 men, yet a then rampant Brisbane couldn't find a way to breach the Mebourne defence. The previous match between the two last year saw Victory lead 3-2 until the last minute of injury time where they were robbed of victory by a refereeing error.

Victory were excellent against Melbourne Heart only to be totally outgunned the 2nd half. Archie Thompson and Carlos Hernandez were as good as I've ever seen them despite that. Pity they had to witness the carnage at the other end but it has to be said that Heart were absolutely clinical on the night.
And the way Brisbane are playing a narrow (scoreboard) defeat against Heart is well and truly good enough for Victory to account for them.

The pressure is rising every game for Brisbane now. Their only hope of salvation atm appears to be on the shoulders of Thomas Broich. But reportedly there is to be no Broich, Enrique or even James Meyer returning yet again!

Last 5 games Brisbane have a goal difference of -7 compared to Victory at 0.
Brisbane have scored 2 goals in that time whereas MV has been much more prolific with 12.

Normally high scoring encounters between these 2. In the past 7 matches only once has the total goals been less than 2.25. 26 goals in those 7 matches averages out at 3.71 goals per game.