This is probably the most difficult game of the round to predict.
An out of sorts Brisbane side playing an improving team still anchored to the bottom of the table.
A quick review of the last 4 games played by both sides shows Gold Coast with a goal difference of 0 compared with -6 in the case of Brisbane.
The Champions are still likely to be missing the likes of Broich, Enrique & Meyer though captain Smith is apparently a 75% chance of making the side. He has been absent the past 2 games and whilst he did play in the Sydney & Melbourne Heart games I think it is fair to say that the goals conceded in the 2 games he has been absent (Wellington & Central Coast) have been 'softer'.
Since their record run they have conceded 2 goals in every game and have conceded the first goal each time. 1st minute against Sydney, 12th minute against Melbourne Heart, 26th against Wellington and a 5th minute clanger last week against Central Coast. That quite obviously has to stop and coach Ange Postecoglou will breathe a huge sigh of relief if they can at least get to half time without being breached in this one.
It really isn't rocket science for coaches atm to work out how to play Brisbane. You either sit deep, soak up pressure and rely on the counter attack, or you press high in defence, wait for the Roar to cough up possession and spring the offside trap. The latter has reaped massive dividends for Wellington & Central Coast in recent times. Without Broich, and Enrique to a lesser extent, Brisbane have looked way too predictable in attack and have been picked off with ease in games of late. Surely Gold Coast coach Bleiberg will be looking to exploit this weakness again and he probably has the players to do it. Youngsters Brown and Halloran have pace to burn on the counter and Maceo Rigters up front has a lethal finish given any free space.
What might help Brisbane a bit is the 9 day break between games. It has all been a bit hectic of late for them with 3 games in quick succession. They have had a bit of extra time for self analysis and to put things right. Conversely the Gold Coast could have done with a quicker backup after suddenly finding their feet against Adelaide. They will have had 10 days between games.
The other positive for Brisbane is the resolve they showed in the 2nd half against Central Coast. They weren't too far away from pulling off another miraculous comeback against their old foes and young Kofi Danning was largely responsible for that. He isn't quite Broich but his fluke goal should provide him with some much needed confidence. If he carries that confidence into this game and shows the same willingness to run at players, it could be the difference between the 2 sides. Ideally though you would expect to see him employed again as a 2nd half substitute for maximum effect. He doesn't look a 90 minute player just yet and has a tendency to lose possession too easily, something that Brisbane can well do without in the early stages of this encounter.
No real home ground advantage to speak of here in the M1 Derby. Probably good for Brisbane to get away from Suncorp after losing their last 2 home matches there and it's quite possible they will have more supporters behind them given the poor home attendances at Skilled Park.
Jonas Salley is reportedly back for this match but I'm not sure that it would be to Gold Coasts' advantage to have him start the game. He lacks pace and it should be quite easy for the Brisbane midfield to dominate this one if he is the midfield General for the home side. It certainly wouldn't be wise to fix something that isn't broke.
Like I said initially this is a difficult game to predict. Brisbane are going to have to start better and get a bit more out of their somewhat beleaguered players if they hope to come away with a win.
I think they can find the necessary improvement though and might just edge this.
Would the Gold Coast have fared any better against the ladder leaders last week? Very doubtful I'd say. And it was a terrible goal keeping error that proved the difference between Brisbane winning or drawing that game. The form guide doesn't look pretty but the reality is a bit different.
And I do want to see Gold Coast repeat their effort of last week before I jump on their bandwagon.
They knew they would be the Guests of Honour at owner Clive Palmers' Christmas party the night after, and there is nothing quite like pleasing the boss at this time of year!
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