A-League Round 6 2012

Melbourne Heart $3.30
Draw 3.35
Brisbane Roar $2.10


This is quite a tough game to predict with both teams travelling poorly and missing a key player each. Heart still without Fred and Brisbane having to do without their prolific scorer Besart Berisha.

I can't remember Heart winning a game with Fred the past season and a bit so their chances look a bit forlorn in turning things around tonight against quality opposition.

Historically Brisbane have the better of things with 3 wins from 5 but  there has been very little between these 2 teams the past 4 times they have met (1 drawn and only a goal separating in other 3) since the inaugaral clash where Brisbane comfortably won 4-0. Even  during Brisbanes' championship dominance the past 2 years they have failed to establish any real superiority over their Melbourne rivals.

Interesting to see how Brisbane cope without Berisha because there is no logical replacement and this is a  team that has failed to score in it's past 2 matches.

System Bet- Brisbane are way too short for an away side to contemplate an investment. Melbourne Heart certainly are backable and better odds can be attained if you shop around (up to $3.75). So 'Systematically' they are very good value for a home  side.
The problem is I just can't see them winning against quality opposition (who can dominate possession) without their best player yet again.

Tip- Either a Brisbane win but most likely a goaless or low scoring DRAW for mine.



Western Sydney Wanderers $2.60
Draw $3.15
Newcastle Jets $2.60

Another difficult game to assess as will any game involving West Sydney in it's debut season. So should we have been so surprised when the defeated the current champions 2 weeks ago at the ridiculous odds of $11? Only Adelaide have conceded as few goals as them so far this season so the foundations for the club are being built well ahead of schedule. Scroing has been their problem but the past fortnight has been much better and they have been richly rewarded with 2 wins.

Conversely Newcastle  have had no trouble scoring thus far netting 9 times which is the 2nd best record in the competition at present. But they have leaked 9 at the other end so they do have defensive frailties that can be exposed.

So given that factor if Western Sydney hold tight in defence once again they could just about get away with this one.

System Bet-  The home odds available are well and truly adequate to invest in WSW.
and Newcastle are poor value for an away team.

Tip- A narrow win for WESTERN SYDNEY WANDERERS but no result would totally surprise in this one.



Sydney FC $2.25
Draw $3.30
Melbourne Victory $3.00

Again there is very little difference in the market between these 2 teams. They call this matchup 'The Big Blue' due to the intense rivalry between the 2 Southern States and the corresponding colour of the Jerseys of course.

Being a local Derby it is not surprising that these 2 teams often cancel each other out. In 24 A-League meetings over the years they have managed to draw 11 times (48%) with Sydney only beating their arch rivals 3 times at home, compared to Victorys' 5.
Del Pierro comes back into the Sydney side and they need all the help they can get after last weeks inglorious effort where they conceded 7. Perhaps a defensive change to0 with Bosschaert possibly making a return from injury. He didn't help them much last year though in stemming the flow of goals so Victory can approach this game with some confidence knowing their 2 quick strikers hit form last week in the 3-2 win against Wellington.
Melbourne too have their defensive problems and in fact both these sides quite easily sit afoot the table in the goals against tally. Sydney have conceded 1 more and both teams have scored 7.

System Bet-  there is very little value available although Sydney are just backable for a home team at the Unitab price shown. Melbourne should be left alone at that price.

Tip- I'm going with that amazing historical DRAW stat which is twice as high as what is generally the norm. Victory have been poor away from home for some time but carry some scoring confidence into this one,  and Sydney will be determined to erase the memory of last week and are likely to have concentrated heavily on their defence all week at training.



Wellington Phoenix $2.45
Draw $3.25
Central Coast Mariners $2.70


Wellington will be happy to come home after a fairly typical 2 game showing on the road with no points in the bag. They have Ben Sigmund returning from a controversial one week suspension and on the evidence of last week against Melbourne Victory he will be welcomed with open arms.
Historically though this is becoming a nightmare match up for them. So normally strong at home they have oddly succumbed to 3 defeats in a row against this opposition and what a time to have to play them!

Central Coast were irrepressible last week in what was probably their best and certainly most prolific peformance in the A-League win last week against Sydney FC. Whilst they were a little poor defensively early in that match they more than made up for it in an attacking sense for just about the entire match. They have the best goal difference in the League and their confidence will be sky high crossing the Tasman to a happy hunting ground.

System Bet- Wellington are the value for a home team , whilst Central Coast should be left alone.

Tip- I am very confident CENTRAL COAST MARINERS can take the 3 points here on current form and their historical prominence in NZ. Despite $2.70 not being good value for an away team I think we have to make an exception here given the circumstances. In fact I think it is outstanding value considering Brisbane are much less than that against Melbourne Heart???



Adelaide United $2.20
Draw $3.25
Perth Glory $3.10

This game could go either way and once again the odds and history tend to indicate that.
85% of matches between these 2 have ended in a result either way, with draw a bit of a rarity.
Both teams come off a win last time and should be just about at full strength.

Curiously Perth have won the last 4 clashes between these two and have won the past 2 in Adelaide 3-0 & 2-0.
That could be misleading though as Adelaide are the current front runners in the competition and are a far more formidable oufit this season to last after a meritorious Asian Champions League run and coach Kosminas' ideolologies are well and truly cemented in their DNA now. As their performance showed last week they are a pretty resilient outfit to deal with even when they haven't got the ball.

Perth possibly welcome back goal scoring machine Shane Smeltz for the first time this season (I think) but are still without their captain Jacob Burns. His omission doesn't really hurt them in an attacking sense but probably means they will be more exposed in defence. That isn't such a bad thing though because Adelaide generally play an open expansive game at home and very often give their opposition chances at the other end. Perth would be well advised to be adventurous in this one as that could be their best chance of winning.

System Bet- Adelaide are just enough value to be backed as a home team here whilst Perth are well short of the required odds of an away team.

Tip- Really could go either way but a result is very likely historically so I'll go with the system value and ADELAIDE at home in an entertaining encounter.

A-League Round 2 2012

Adelaide United $1.62
Draw $3.75
West Sydney Wanderers $5.00


Adelaide come into this game after a somewhat surprising win away against a normally
resilient home team at Newcastle. Surprising considering the fact that they had barely slept for 3 nights and done so much travelling to and from Uzbekistan before arriving in NSW.
I didn't see that match but they were apparently by far the better team and had the game gone for another half hour or so they were the only one that was going to score again.
A fairly quick turnaround here for them so it is possible that their recent exertions could actually catch up with them here. Even more bad news for them is the absence of Dario Vidosic who scored one and provided one for them last week in that 2-0 win. Without him they may not have troubled the scorer.
Last year Adelaides' home form totally deserted them winning only 3 from 15, the majority of those matches played on a Friday night as this will be. Quite possible they have turned the corner in this regard looking at their AFC heroics but I'm not quite prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt just yet.

Western Sydney Warriors on debut were very good value for their draw against last seasons champions Central Coast Mariners at their home base in Parramatta. They were very well organised, disciplined, and with Aaron Mooy calling the shots in midfield they created more than enough chances to win the match. Problem was they never really looked like scoring due to a woefully profligate strikeforce. They should get better however and marquis player Shinji Ono should get a bit more game time here. On what he showed last week it can only spell trouble for Adelaide.
This team look to have formed a pretty tight knot group already so perhaps that augurs well for their first trip away and they have plenty or experience amongst their ranks.

There is a massive disparity in the odds of these 2 teams and the absence of Vidosic gives WSW a legitimate chance of sneaking a win here.
Hard to be confident given results of last week and the profligacy shown by the debutantes but at the prices quoted their is only one team I would be backing, and that is the new boys. No sense in dying wondering!



Sydney FC $2.00
Draw $3.35
Newcastle Jets $3.50

These two teams come into this match as the cellar dwellars after similar 2-0 defeats in their first game, the major difference being that Newcastle were at home opposed to Sydney who were forced to travel across the Tasman. That in itself probably suggests that Sydney deserves it's favoritism here and at least they did look like scoring last week, and possibly could have made a game of it had they done so. Winning an away game in this league after a home loss is a bit of rarity which isn't a positive for Newcastle Jets today.
Overall Sydney has far the better of these 2 teams in a head to head to situation winning nearly 57% of clashes with Newcastle only 18%. 25% of matches between them have ended in draws and that is identical to the avearage % of draws in all Soccer matches world wide.
Unfortunately there is not the required $4.10 available anywhere which is the prerequisite for betting on a draw, and is very rarely available in any match. Hence just why the Corprorates and Totes around the world would find it very hard to lose betting on Soccer matches,

Anywhow back to the game which could be a very tense encounter given the fact that neither are on the board yet and probably too anxious to do so given the spotlight is right on both today with their 2 big name signings (Del Pierro & Heskey) and a possible record attendance to bear witness. That is especially so for Sydney being the home side and hopefully it won't weigh too heavily on them.
Judging by respective performances first up neither team would seem capable of a stellar peformance but hopefully a a close tussle enuses which would go a long way to leaving media and Spectators satisfied with the outcome.

From a head to head betting perspective there is little value here given the most likely result is either a Sydney win or a closely fought draw.
Just noticed though that one betting agency is offering $3.80 about a Newcastle win which is just enough  for an away team from a long term betting strategy point of view.

I'm tipping a close one with few goals that ends in a draw. Perhaps a 1-1 outcome.


Brisbane Roar $1.75
Draw $3.50
Melbourne Victory $4.40

Possibly another tough encounter here given that there are high expectations of both teams with neither unable to win in their first match of the season. This game has the potential to be a real grudge match too given that former Roar Coach Ange Postecoglou left in slightly acrimonious circumstances at the end of last season, announcing one moment that he was keen to win 3 consecutive championships with Brisbane, and just hours later handing in his resignation. The fact that a couple of Brisbane players have spoken up during the week, one stating that current mentor Rado Vidosic was the brains behind the success of the past 2 years, has only added fuel to the fire.
On paper this is definitely not a good match up for the Victoryans with Postecoglou looking to cement his ideals on his new look side, who now have to play a team who is already well versed in them off the back of 2 consecutive championships under his tutelage!
And they do so without the services of the potent Archie Thompson and the gifted Marco Rojas both away on international duty. Ironically they were the 2 players who combined to score their only goal last week against arch rivals Heart, and they are probably the 2 quickest players in the team. Pace up front is probably the thing they need most today as Postecoglous' sides needs it in spades to hasten what can sometimes be a very 'plodding' style of play, with the necessity of playing out from the back.
Speed in transition has often been the catchcry from the master coach but you also need quick players in the final third to make things count and the 2 absentees will be sorely missed today.

Conversely Brisbane are at full strength and really should to take full advantage of the fact that Victory are decidedly vulnerable today. The motive is there and so is the understanding between their players after a considerable amount of time together.
They really should win this one given that. although I do expect some strong resolve from the visitors.

Betting strategy dictates that we take Melbourne Victory here at the $4.40 on offer for an away team.
I can't recommend doing so but funnier things have happened  and what a coup it would be for Ange if his team could pull it off.

Brisbane hold aces but Perth need not die wondering

This Sundays' Grand Final at Suncorp stadium between defending champions Brisbane Roar and a resurgent Perth Glory is almost certain to be a sellout that will hopefully provide similar drama to the incredible spectacle witnessed at the same venue last year.
With an average of 3.8 goals scored between these 2 teams since the inception of the A-League it is reasonable to assume that this matchup is going to at least provide it's fair share of goalmouth action.

Brisbane enter the game as deserved (and resounding) favourites. As stated they are defending champions, they are the home side and have also had the better of Perth this season, winning 2 and drawing 1 of their 3 encounters. The 2 wins were resounding ones, 4-0 at home earlier in the season (gave Brisbane a record 36 game unbeaten streak) and a fairly recent 3-0 thumping over the visitors in Perth. Sandwiched between those 2 games was a very entertaining 3 all draw over in the west which could have gone either way.
Even more deflating for Perth supporters is the Head To Head record between these 2 which reads 21 games and only 3 wins for their team overall. Away from home it is even more damning for the Glory with only 1 win at Suncorp and 3 draws from 10 matches.

Amazingly though that is exactly the same statistic that Perth faced last week before their crunch Semi Final clash against Central Coast. The 2nd half and extra time wasn't particularly pretty for the Glory but they defended resolutely and did create 1 or 2 goal scoring opportunites for themselves, eventually claiming an unexpected win against the regular season Champions.
Their first half performance was very creditable in that game and they had the better of the home side in that period. They did concede first however off a horrendous defensive error, only to hit straight back with a goal, once again proving their grit and resolve in 2012.

The new found resilience and self belief in this Perth side should not be underestimated as last Christmas they looked to be a spent force. At that stage they looked more likely to be wooden spooners than title contenders and coach Ian Ferguson was possibly one defeat away from departing the scene. A little earlier than that owner Tony Sage was also on the verge of abandoning ship too, off the back of heavy criticism from home fans, but he stuck with it, gave tremendous support to his beleaguered coach, and eventually reaped the rewards. Since the New Year the turnaround has been nothing short of astounding. In their last 13 matches, of a possible 39 points in the regular season they managed to claim 28 of them, enough to earn them 3rd spot on the competition table.

Thereafter they comfortably won their first finals match against Melbourne Heart and then went on to win pulsating encounter in extra time against a similarly (to themselves) resilient Wellington Phoenix, before pulling off one of the upsets of the season against the Mariners last week.

There is a good blend of experience and youth in the squad and importantly some of their older players have a wealth of big game experience. The likes of Billy Mehmet,  Steve McGarry, Liam Miller and Andrezinho have all played in bigger Leagues overseas. Add to that mix their very much in form All Whites (NZ) World Cup scoring hero Shane Smeltz, and they are certainly not a team to be taken lightly.

What is probably imperative on Sunday is that Perth come to Brisbane with a positive mindset. That wasn't the case earlier in the season when Coach Ferguson employed negative tactics, deciding to sit back and absorb pressure hoping to catch Brisbane napping on the counter attack. That game plan backfired badly for his side after they conceded fairly early and it ended up being a very long night for them with the game all over at half time in the face of a 4-0 deficit. Notably the tactics changed in the 2nd half through the introduction of Andrezinho who proceeded to run rings around Brisbanes 'defence, all to no avail, but at least it stemmed the flow of goals to nought at the other end, adding some respectability to the performance.

As massive underdogs for this game Perth have nothing to lose and the best option would be to repeat what they did last week against Central Coast. In that match they pressed high up the pitch, stopped Central Coast getting into their rhythm and got a very big slice of possession in the process. That might be their best hope of toppling Brisbane who more often than not dominate their opponents if allowed to play at their own tempo. It will take a massive physical effort from Perth to employ this tactic for 90 minutes or more, but as most players will tell you it can be just as (if not more) energy sapping to sit back and defend the whole game with little possession of the ball.
The only problem I see for Perth is that they did get very fatigued from the 2nd half onwards last week against the Mariners. They rode their luck there on a couple of occasions against an unusually profligate attack, and likely won't be afforded the same luxury this time around. That said though, their defending last week was, on the whole, pretty impressive under pressure.

One other positive for them is that Brisbane didn't play overly well in front of  massive home support in last seasons Grand final, taking some 117 minutes to find the net. Nerves could well have played a part there, and could this year too, which is why it is so important for Perth not to go into their shell early in this match. If Brisbane get into a rhythm early it could lead to the concession of an early goal, which would likely be fatal to Perth in the final anlaysis of this match.

Perth need to get their fair share of possession and they can only do that by stemming the flow of supply to the Brisbane midfield. In their other clashes this season they have failed to contend with Erik Paartalu providing this impetus to the Brisane midfield but they do have the option here of promoting Steve McGarry to the starting lineup now he has overcome a knee injury. He generally plays behind the front 2 strikers, could easily be employed to 'look after' Paartalu and he has been a very handy player for Perth this season, chiming in with some very important goals. He is not strictly a midfielder and his inclusion might leave them short in that area of the field but from Perths'point of view it is probably more important that the supply doesn't get there in the first place. There is no doubt Perth they have the attacking ammunition to inflict hurt on the home side. They have 2 damaging wingers in Dodd and Andrezinho (if he overcomes injury) who have the ability to get in behind what can be (at times) a frail Brisbane defensive line, and 2 potent Central attackers in the shape of Smeltz and Mehmet, who more often than not take their chances when presented. Without adequate supply from their midfield though it is going to be difficult to create enough chances to trouble what can be a relentless Brisbane side.

One possible and unexpected bonus for the Perth Defence is the form and fitness of Brisbanes' (and the Leagues) leading goal scorer Besart Berisha. Affectionately penned the Albanian Beast by a Forumite earlier this season he looked nothing of that sort on Tuesday night against Korean side Ulsan Hyundai. He originally wasn't going to take his place in that match and hardly featured, eventually replaced at about the hour mark. Even if he does overcome the Virus that has struck him down over the past 2 weeks he might not be at his best on Sunday.
Add to that the slightly disappointing big game performances of Thomas Broich (in last years Grand Final and this years' Asian Champions League matches), and the door is perhaps even more ajar for Perth to gain a serious foothold in this Grand Final.

Another bonus might well be a worn pitch, as there are two Rugby Union matches programmed for Suncorp Stadium on Friday night. A roughened surface is more likely to affect Brisbane Roar who are the better "Footballing" side of the 2 and it certainly didn't help them against the Koreans on Tuesday  (after the Rugby clashes last weekend). There is one less day for the groundsmen to prepare for this game, so it does seem that the surface will be less than ideal for attractive Football to be played, and for Brisbane to retain the amount of possession they normally thrive on. Lets hope the overall spectacle isn't compromised as a result!

All that said Brisbane Roar have coped with similar scenarios in the past. For instance they have a good record on the reputedly bumpy pitch at Gosford. They will enter this game with a lot of confidence after 2 pretty impressive displays against the Mariners, and an almost complete domination of Perth this season. And despite defeat on Tuesday night against an Asian opponent that was slightly better than them, it was nearly the perfect preparation for this Grand Final. They certainly weren't disgraced and finished off a very high tempo, and physically demanding game with plenty of energy, unlucky in fact not to have grasped a late equaliser. It is extremely unlikely Perth are going to present them with as many problems as that Korean side did, in the areas of speed, passing precision and energy.

A lot is going to depend on how well Brisbane start this game and whether or not they can get a goal in the first half an hour or so. They will be keen to inflict first blood with an early goal and sow the seeds of doubt that might still be fresh in the Perth psyche form the 3-0 loss in back in late February . If they do so Brisbane just might win comfortably.
The longer the game goes without the ascendency being taken by the home team though, the harder it will become to unlock the door of a likely gritty underdog.

What we do know about this Brisbane Roar team is that they don't tend to panic whatever the situation. As long as they are getting the Lions share of possession they will be confident of sealing victory in any situation. And how hopeless that situation looked in the corresponding match last season 2-0 down with only 3 minutes left out of the 120 minutes eventually allocated. It is never over till it's over as far as this team is concerned so their opponent needs to be absolutely focused throughout the entire match.
Brisbane will be hoping that Besart Berisha is back to somewhere near his best, though 6 of the 10 goals they have scored against Perth this season have come from elsewhere in the shape of Nicholls, Henrique, Nakajima- Farran & Paartalu, so the goal threat certainly doesn't rest with him. Broich didn't even play in the last 2 encounters between these two, but did play in the 4-0 home win earlier this season, inflicting maximum damage from memory, so his performance could go a long way to deciding the outcome of this match. Or, how Perth cope with him could be pivotal let's say.

This really is Brisbanes' final to lose and they need to be acutely aware that they can't afford to rest on their laurels and let any complacency creep in. They have been the better performed side of the two this season, and it does appear they are finishing the season off with more energy than Perth, who have arguably played 2 Grand Finals (both went to injury time) already in their past 2 matches.
This Brisbane side have an average age of 25.8 opposed to Perth at 27.47. Although those figures don't appear to be overly significant on paper, it could be just enough to tip the balance in Brisbanes' favor at the end of a very long season.
A lot is going to depend on how well rested and recuperated Perth are from last weeks heroics, and whether they can raise themselves to an anticipated even higher level this time against the current Champions. It's a big ask, probably too big in my opinion and I'm tipping Brisbane to prevail in this one by 2 goals.

An added incentive to the winner is automatic qualification to next years Asian Champions League.
The loser has the slightly more difficult option of having to win a qualifying match, but the opposition is likely to be an inferior club team from that region. (Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia etc.)
Brisbane just might be the hungrier for it, as their quest for that title is just about over this season. And they will know they should have done better.