This Sundays' Grand Final at Suncorp stadium between defending champions Brisbane Roar and a resurgent Perth Glory is almost certain to be a sellout that will hopefully provide similar drama to the incredible spectacle witnessed at the same venue last year.
With an average of 3.8 goals scored between these 2 teams since the inception of the A-League it is reasonable to assume that this matchup is going to at least provide it's fair share of goalmouth action.
Brisbane enter the game as deserved (and resounding) favourites. As stated they are defending champions, they are the home side and have also had the better of Perth this season, winning 2 and drawing 1 of their 3 encounters. The 2 wins were resounding ones, 4-0 at home earlier in the season (gave Brisbane a record 36 game unbeaten streak) and a fairly recent 3-0 thumping over the visitors in Perth. Sandwiched between those 2 games was a very entertaining 3 all draw over in the west which could have gone either way.
Even more deflating for Perth supporters is the Head To Head record between these 2 which reads 21 games and only 3 wins for their team overall. Away from home it is even more damning for the Glory with only 1 win at Suncorp and 3 draws from 10 matches.
Amazingly though that is exactly the same statistic that Perth faced last week before their crunch Semi Final clash against Central Coast. The 2nd half and extra time wasn't particularly pretty for the Glory but they defended resolutely and did create 1 or 2 goal scoring opportunites for themselves, eventually claiming an unexpected win against the regular season Champions.
Their first half performance was very creditable in that game and they had the better of the home side in that period. They did concede first however off a horrendous defensive error, only to hit straight back with a goal, once again proving their grit and resolve in 2012.
The new found resilience and self belief in this Perth side should not be underestimated as last Christmas they looked to be a spent force. At that stage they looked more likely to be wooden spooners than title contenders and coach Ian Ferguson was possibly one defeat away from departing the scene. A little earlier than that owner Tony Sage was also on the verge of abandoning ship too, off the back of heavy criticism from home fans, but he stuck with it, gave tremendous support to his beleaguered coach, and eventually reaped the rewards. Since the New Year the turnaround has been nothing short of astounding. In their last 13 matches, of a possible 39 points in the regular season they managed to claim 28 of them, enough to earn them 3rd spot on the competition table.
Thereafter they comfortably won their first finals match against Melbourne Heart and then went on to win pulsating encounter in extra time against a similarly (to themselves) resilient Wellington Phoenix, before pulling off one of the upsets of the season against the Mariners last week.
There is a good blend of experience and youth in the squad and importantly some of their older players have a wealth of big game experience. The likes of Billy Mehmet, Steve McGarry, Liam Miller and Andrezinho have all played in bigger Leagues overseas. Add to that mix their very much in form All Whites (NZ) World Cup scoring hero Shane Smeltz, and they are certainly not a team to be taken lightly.
What is probably imperative on Sunday is that Perth come to Brisbane with a positive mindset. That wasn't the case earlier in the season when Coach Ferguson employed negative tactics, deciding to sit back and absorb pressure hoping to catch Brisbane napping on the counter attack. That game plan backfired badly for his side after they conceded fairly early and it ended up being a very long night for them with the game all over at half time in the face of a 4-0 deficit. Notably the tactics changed in the 2nd half through the introduction of Andrezinho who proceeded to run rings around Brisbanes 'defence, all to no avail, but at least it stemmed the flow of goals to nought at the other end, adding some respectability to the performance.
As massive underdogs for this game Perth have nothing to lose and the best option would be to repeat what they did last week against Central Coast. In that match they pressed high up the pitch, stopped Central Coast getting into their rhythm and got a very big slice of possession in the process. That might be their best hope of toppling Brisbane who more often than not dominate their opponents if allowed to play at their own tempo. It will take a massive physical effort from Perth to employ this tactic for 90 minutes or more, but as most players will tell you it can be just as (if not more) energy sapping to sit back and defend the whole game with little possession of the ball.
The only problem I see for Perth is that they did get very fatigued from the 2nd half onwards last week against the Mariners. They rode their luck there on a couple of occasions against an unusually profligate attack, and likely won't be afforded the same luxury this time around. That said though, their defending last week was, on the whole, pretty impressive under pressure.
One other positive for them is that Brisbane didn't play overly well in front of massive home support in last seasons Grand final, taking some 117 minutes to find the net. Nerves could well have played a part there, and could this year too, which is why it is so important for Perth not to go into their shell early in this match. If Brisbane get into a rhythm early it could lead to the concession of an early goal, which would likely be fatal to Perth in the final anlaysis of this match.
Perth need to get their fair share of possession and they can only do that by stemming the flow of supply to the Brisbane midfield. In their other clashes this season they have failed to contend with Erik Paartalu providing this impetus to the Brisane midfield but they do have the option here of promoting Steve McGarry to the starting lineup now he has overcome a knee injury. He generally plays behind the front 2 strikers, could easily be employed to 'look after' Paartalu and he has been a very handy player for Perth this season, chiming in with some very important goals. He is not strictly a midfielder and his inclusion might leave them short in that area of the field but from Perths'point of view it is probably more important that the supply doesn't get there in the first place. There is no doubt Perth they have the attacking ammunition to inflict hurt on the home side. They have 2 damaging wingers in Dodd and Andrezinho (if he overcomes injury) who have the ability to get in behind what can be (at times) a frail Brisbane defensive line, and 2 potent Central attackers in the shape of Smeltz and Mehmet, who more often than not take their chances when presented. Without adequate supply from their midfield though it is going to be difficult to create enough chances to trouble what can be a relentless Brisbane side.
One possible and unexpected bonus for the Perth Defence is the form and fitness of Brisbanes' (and the Leagues) leading goal scorer Besart Berisha. Affectionately penned the Albanian Beast by a Forumite earlier this season he looked nothing of that sort on Tuesday night against Korean side Ulsan Hyundai. He originally wasn't going to take his place in that match and hardly featured, eventually replaced at about the hour mark. Even if he does overcome the Virus that has struck him down over the past 2 weeks he might not be at his best on Sunday.
Add to that the slightly disappointing big game performances of Thomas Broich (in last years Grand Final and this years' Asian Champions League matches), and the door is perhaps even more ajar for Perth to gain a serious foothold in this Grand Final.
Another bonus might well be a worn pitch, as there are two Rugby Union matches programmed for Suncorp Stadium on Friday night. A roughened surface is more likely to affect Brisbane Roar who are the better "Footballing" side of the 2 and it certainly didn't help them against the Koreans on Tuesday (after the Rugby clashes last weekend). There is one less day for the groundsmen to prepare for this game, so it does seem that the surface will be less than ideal for attractive Football to be played, and for Brisbane to retain the amount of possession they normally thrive on. Lets hope the overall spectacle isn't compromised as a result!
All that said Brisbane Roar have coped with similar scenarios in the past. For instance they have a good record on the reputedly bumpy pitch at Gosford. They will enter this game with a lot of confidence after 2 pretty impressive displays against the Mariners, and an almost complete domination of Perth this season. And despite defeat on Tuesday night against an Asian opponent that was slightly better than them, it was nearly the perfect preparation for this Grand Final. They certainly weren't disgraced and finished off a very high tempo, and physically demanding game with plenty of energy, unlucky in fact not to have grasped a late equaliser. It is extremely unlikely Perth are going to present them with as many problems as that Korean side did, in the areas of speed, passing precision and energy.
A lot is going to depend on how well Brisbane start this game and whether or not they can get a goal in the first half an hour or so. They will be keen to inflict first blood with an early goal and sow the seeds of doubt that might still be fresh in the Perth psyche form the 3-0 loss in back in late February . If they do so Brisbane just might win comfortably.
The longer the game goes without the ascendency being taken by the home team though, the harder it will become to unlock the door of a likely gritty underdog.
What we do know about this Brisbane Roar team is that they don't tend to panic whatever the situation. As long as they are getting the Lions share of possession they will be confident of sealing victory in any situation. And how hopeless that situation looked in the corresponding match last season 2-0 down with only 3 minutes left out of the 120 minutes eventually allocated. It is never over till it's over as far as this team is concerned so their opponent needs to be absolutely focused throughout the entire match.
Brisbane will be hoping that Besart Berisha is back to somewhere near his best, though 6 of the 10 goals they have scored against Perth this season have come from elsewhere in the shape of Nicholls, Henrique, Nakajima- Farran & Paartalu, so the goal threat certainly doesn't rest with him. Broich didn't even play in the last 2 encounters between these two, but did play in the 4-0 home win earlier this season, inflicting maximum damage from memory, so his performance could go a long way to deciding the outcome of this match. Or, how Perth cope with him could be pivotal let's say.
This really is Brisbanes' final to lose and they need to be acutely aware that they can't afford to rest on their laurels and let any complacency creep in. They have been the better performed side of the two this season, and it does appear they are finishing the season off with more energy than Perth, who have arguably played 2 Grand Finals (both went to injury time) already in their past 2 matches.
This Brisbane side have an average age of 25.8 opposed to Perth at 27.47. Although those figures don't appear to be overly significant on paper, it could be just enough to tip the balance in Brisbanes' favor at the end of a very long season.
A lot is going to depend on how well rested and recuperated Perth are from last weeks heroics, and whether they can raise themselves to an anticipated even higher level this time against the current Champions. It's a big ask, probably too big in my opinion and I'm tipping Brisbane to prevail in this one by 2 goals.
An added incentive to the winner is automatic qualification to next years Asian Champions League.
The loser has the slightly more difficult option of having to win a qualifying match, but the opposition is likely to be an inferior club team from that region. (Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia etc.)
Brisbane just might be the hungrier for it, as their quest for that title is just about over this season. And they will know they should have done better.
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