Melbourne Heart $3.30
Draw 3.35
Brisbane Roar $2.10
This is quite a tough game to predict with both teams travelling poorly and missing a key player each. Heart still without Fred and Brisbane having to do without their prolific scorer Besart Berisha.
I can't remember Heart winning a game with Fred the past season and a bit so their chances look a bit forlorn in turning things around tonight against quality opposition.
Historically Brisbane have the better of things with 3 wins from 5 but there has been very little between these 2 teams the past 4 times they have met (1 drawn and only a goal separating in other 3) since the inaugaral clash where Brisbane comfortably won 4-0. Even during Brisbanes' championship dominance the past 2 years they have failed to establish any real superiority over their Melbourne rivals.
Interesting to see how Brisbane cope without Berisha because there is no logical replacement and this is a team that has failed to score in it's past 2 matches.
System Bet- Brisbane are way too short for an away side to contemplate an investment. Melbourne Heart certainly are backable and better odds can be attained if you shop around (up to $3.75). So 'Systematically' they are very good value for a home side.
The problem is I just can't see them winning against quality opposition (who can dominate possession) without their best player yet again.
Tip- Either a Brisbane win but most likely a goaless or low scoring DRAW for mine.
Western Sydney Wanderers $2.60
Draw $3.15
Newcastle Jets $2.60
Another difficult game to assess as will any game involving West Sydney in it's debut season. So should we have been so surprised when the defeated the current champions 2 weeks ago at the ridiculous odds of $11? Only Adelaide have conceded as few goals as them so far this season so the foundations for the club are being built well ahead of schedule. Scroing has been their problem but the past fortnight has been much better and they have been richly rewarded with 2 wins.
Conversely Newcastle have had no trouble scoring thus far netting 9 times which is the 2nd best record in the competition at present. But they have leaked 9 at the other end so they do have defensive frailties that can be exposed.
So given that factor if Western Sydney hold tight in defence once again they could just about get away with this one.
System Bet- The home odds available are well and truly adequate to invest in WSW.
and Newcastle are poor value for an away team.
Tip- A narrow win for WESTERN SYDNEY WANDERERS but no result would totally surprise in this one.
Sydney FC $2.25
Draw $3.30
Melbourne Victory $3.00
Again there is very little difference in the market between these 2 teams. They call this matchup 'The Big Blue' due to the intense rivalry between the 2 Southern States and the corresponding colour of the Jerseys of course.
Being a local Derby it is not surprising that these 2 teams often cancel each other out. In 24 A-League meetings over the years they have managed to draw 11 times (48%) with Sydney only beating their arch rivals 3 times at home, compared to Victorys' 5.
Del Pierro comes back into the Sydney side and they need all the help they can get after last weeks inglorious effort where they conceded 7. Perhaps a defensive change to0 with Bosschaert possibly making a return from injury. He didn't help them much last year though in stemming the flow of goals so Victory can approach this game with some confidence knowing their 2 quick strikers hit form last week in the 3-2 win against Wellington.
Melbourne too have their defensive problems and in fact both these sides quite easily sit afoot the table in the goals against tally. Sydney have conceded 1 more and both teams have scored 7.
System Bet- there is very little value available although Sydney are just backable for a home team at the Unitab price shown. Melbourne should be left alone at that price.
Tip- I'm going with that amazing historical DRAW stat which is twice as high as what is generally the norm. Victory have been poor away from home for some time but carry some scoring confidence into this one, and Sydney will be determined to erase the memory of last week and are likely to have concentrated heavily on their defence all week at training.
Wellington Phoenix $2.45
Draw $3.25
Central Coast Mariners $2.70
Wellington will be happy to come home after a fairly typical 2 game showing on the road with no points in the bag. They have Ben Sigmund returning from a controversial one week suspension and on the evidence of last week against Melbourne Victory he will be welcomed with open arms.
Historically though this is becoming a nightmare match up for them. So normally strong at home they have oddly succumbed to 3 defeats in a row against this opposition and what a time to have to play them!
Central Coast were irrepressible last week in what was probably their best and certainly most prolific peformance in the A-League win last week against Sydney FC. Whilst they were a little poor defensively early in that match they more than made up for it in an attacking sense for just about the entire match. They have the best goal difference in the League and their confidence will be sky high crossing the Tasman to a happy hunting ground.
System Bet- Wellington are the value for a home team , whilst Central Coast should be left alone.
Tip- I am very confident CENTRAL COAST MARINERS can take the 3 points here on current form and their historical prominence in NZ. Despite $2.70 not being good value for an away team I think we have to make an exception here given the circumstances. In fact I think it is outstanding value considering Brisbane are much less than that against Melbourne Heart???
Adelaide United $2.20
Draw $3.25
Perth Glory $3.10
This game could go either way and once again the odds and history tend to indicate that.
85% of matches between these 2 have ended in a result either way, with draw a bit of a rarity.
Both teams come off a win last time and should be just about at full strength.
Curiously Perth have won the last 4 clashes between these two and have won the past 2 in Adelaide 3-0 & 2-0.
That could be misleading though as Adelaide are the current front runners in the competition and are a far more formidable oufit this season to last after a meritorious Asian Champions League run and coach Kosminas' ideolologies are well and truly cemented in their DNA now. As their performance showed last week they are a pretty resilient outfit to deal with even when they haven't got the ball.
Perth possibly welcome back goal scoring machine Shane Smeltz for the first time this season (I think) but are still without their captain Jacob Burns. His omission doesn't really hurt them in an attacking sense but probably means they will be more exposed in defence. That isn't such a bad thing though because Adelaide generally play an open expansive game at home and very often give their opposition chances at the other end. Perth would be well advised to be adventurous in this one as that could be their best chance of winning.
System Bet- Adelaide are just enough value to be backed as a home team here whilst Perth are well short of the required odds of an away team.
Tip- Really could go either way but a result is very likely historically so I'll go with the system value and ADELAIDE at home in an entertaining encounter.
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