Brisbane Roar $1.67
Draw $3.75
Sydney FC $4.75
History;
23 Matches- Brisbane 9 wins, Sydney 6 wins with 8 draws.
This is an outstanding fixture for Brisbane Roar who have beaten the Sydneysiders 6 times in succession at this venue and have won 7 of the last 10 clashes home and away.
Squad Changes;
Besart Berisha returns for the home team whilst Sydney also have the promising youngster Joel Chianese available for selection. Mitch Malia is rested for Sydney and Terry Antonis is unavailable due to Young Socceroos commitments.
Form;
Both teams are really struggling atm with Brisbane having lost 3 on the trot and Sydney suffering 2 morale sapping defeats in their past 2 matches, conceding 10 goals in the process.
Preview;
This is really a must win for Brisbane who need to reignite their season after completely losing their way in recent weeks. Everything looked rosy after round 2, business as usual it seemed after an impressive 5-0 demolition of Melbourne Victory in Round 2. That was a bit of a grudge match for the Roar who may have raised their level a couple of notches in the presence of former coach Ange Postecoglou, who had a slightly acrimonious departure at the end of last season.
This could well be a grudge match too with Besart Berisha (the Albanian Beast!) set to lock horns once again with Pascal Bosschaart of Sydney FC who only returned from injury last week. Who could forget the last clash between these 2 sides and the melee that erupted after the miraculous and dramatic come from behind late win in January.
Whether that gives Brisbane a psyhological edge in this one is debatable. It may be just as likely to spur Sydney on and this matchup does give on the feel of a local Derby, where neither side is likely to give an inch.
This is a better offensive Sydney unit this time around with Del Pierro and the slick Panamanian striker Yairo Yau almost certain to cause problems for them defensively. Joel Chianese didn't play in that last encounter and neither did the likes of Ali Abaas, Paul Reid or even goalkeeper Ivan Nicevski.
The problem for Sydney lies in defence and it was pretty much their Achilles heel all last season too. On the bright side for them Brisbane have only scored once in their past 3 matches so they have little to fear coming into this clash. They are a team in a bit of turmoil though. No current coach after the shock departure of Ian Crook and they have been abysmal without Del Pierro on the pitch in their past 2 matches. He didn't play in the slaughter against Central Coast and all 3 goals were scored after he was replaced last week against Melbourne Victory. To get out of this one unscathed they will need their iconic player to see out nearly all of this one you'd suspect.
Brisbane must surely drop defender Matt Jurman for this one after his ordinary showing last week. He was found wanting in 3 of the goals scored against them and Brisbane need to be more resilient in this against a pretty potent Sydney attack that has scored 4 times in their past 2 matches.
Tip;
This looks like a good opportunity for Brisbane to get back on track providing their is no more complacency and they play to somewhere near their full potential. There is a danger that the desire is no longer there after back to back championship titles but they did receive a timely wake up call last week in Melbourne which should steel them for this one. Historically there is only one team who can win though it might pay to remember that Syney did have them on toast in this same fixture last season before that dramatic finale.
Bet advice;
History aside there is no way in the wide world that the disparity in odds between these 2 is justified. Brisbane haven't won in 3 and were soundly beaten last week whilst Sydney did have 3 points in the bag last week before surrendering late. $5 is available about them with some operators (Unitab prices shown) and is certainly more than sufficient value for an away team. The draw isn't enough value to take so Sydney to win at that price will have to do me.
Adelaide Utd $1.85
Draw $3.40
Melbourne Heart $4.10
History;
6 Matches- Adelaide 3 wins, Heart 1 win with 2 draws.
Adelaide have failed to beat Heart at home though in last 3 matches, 2 draws and 1 loss.
Squad Changes;
Sergio Van Dijk returns for Adelaide and Antony Golec returns from injury.
Form;
Adelaide sit as equal leader and have been very solid over the first 6 rounds losing only once. Of their last 3 matches they have won 2 and drew against Perth last week.
Melbourne Heart returned to form last week with a 4-1 surprise thumping of Brisbane Roar at home. That was only their 2nd win of the season and followed 3 consecutive losses.
Preview;
Adelaide have made a great start to the season off the back of a successful Asian Champions League campaign that began at the end of last season and ended at the start of this one. Ever since coach John "The Messiah" Kosmina returned to the fold last season Adelaide have been a far different proposition to the one that started that season as A-League favourites, and failed to flatter. They now have self belief and a system that fits their current squad. Dario Vidosic is a far more influential player this year to last and being fully fit is probably the reason why. The Argentinian Jeronimo up front has been a revelation, and the squad now has considerable depth particularly in attacking sense with the likes of Van Dijk, Djite and Iain Ramsay being interchanged as the coach sees fit. The defence has stability and there is always the chance that captain and goalkeeper Eugene Galekovic will pull off a miracle save or two if required.
I wouldn't say the team is in sparkling form at the moment off a slightly fortunate win against Brisbane (when they did park the Bus!) and a less than convincing draw against Perth last week. That game could have gone either way and once again Adelaide played an open enough game at Hindmarsh to reward the away team if they were good enough. As it turned out Perth weren't quite.
Melbourne Heart should take a lot out of their win against the current champions last week and they do tend to be a confidence team. It was a very significant win because it was their first win in a long time without their mercurial captain Fred who continues his horror run with injury.
They may well have found the solution in Richard Garcia. The former Hull and Socerroos midfielder had an absolute blinder last week in an attacking sense and looks a perfect foil for the more defensive minded Matt Thompson (though he can be effective in attack too). Import Josip Tadic up front was very influential last week and on may well be the signing of the season. It is doubtful there is a forward in this League that has a better touch or quicker brain on what we saw last week. And he can score at will and give quality service to fellow attackers. Great to see David Williams come off the bench last week and finish his goal with some aplomb. Perhaps he too is about to realise his early potential.
Clint Bolton is ever reliable in goal, and great on crosses, and with 2 exciting fullbacks in Aziz Behich (returning from Socceroos duty) & Michael Marrone they are always a threat to opposing defences. As a whole the team can run a bit hot and cold and the self belief is questionable at times, but they often do often relish the underdog tag which exists here. They have already claimed the big scalps of Melbourne Victory and Brisbane Roar in their 2 wins this season.
Tip;
Because Adelaide just might have played themselves a bit out of form last week (and possibly against Brisbane in an attacking sense) and Heart doing quite the opposite last week I can smell a bit of an upset is on the cards here. The likes of Garcia and Tadic were so impressive last week that it is hard not to see them carrying that form into this game. Adelaide are certainly beatable at home at the best of times so the Melbourne side need not die wondering here. They need to match what Adelaide throw at them or better still go on the offensive. If they do that I feel they can come away with the spoils but if they sit back and try to absorb too much pressure they might come unstuck.
Bet advice;
Once again their is a disproportionate look to the market here with Adelaide massive favourites to win because they are at home. The odds represent no value for a home team whilst the $4.00+ odds about the away team is very generous especially given the fact that they are coming off an impressive win last week and do have a good record here in recent times. I'm very happy to invest on Heart at that price.
Melbourne Victory $2.60
Draw $3.35
Central Coast Mariners $2.55
History;
21 matches- Victory 9 wins, Central Coast 7 wins with 5 draws. Niether of these teams have an outstanding record at home against each other with Victory 4/10 & Central Coast 4/11 which is quite a bit less than the norm.
Squad changes;
Matthew Foschini, Theo Markelis, Isaka Cernak & Jimmy Jeggo are all available for Melbourne Victory selection.
Adriano Pellegrino, Oliver Bozanic,. Brad McDonald Mitchell Duke & Adam Kwasnik return to the fold for Central Coast whilst Troy Hearfield misses out.
Preview;
Both sides come into this match in great form with Victory buoyed by an unexpected late win against Sydney last week which came off the back of a good home win against poor Melbourne travellers Wellington Phoenix. Under Ange Postecoglous' tutelage they are now starting to find some form and rhythm, and with that surely comes a large dose of self belief. They were probably a bit flattered last week with Sydney completely collapsing in the last 20 minutes of the match to succumb late but nevertheless it is always a filip for any team to win as they did. This is the acid test for them so far this season against an in form Central Coast team who put 7 past the same Sydney opppositon (with Del Pierro) the prior week, and then crossed the Tasman to once again put Wellington to the sword at their otherwise fortress like Westpac stadium. They are certainly the form side of the moment and come into this one with an overall +7 goal difference compared to the -4 of Victory.
The home side do grow a leg in front of an always abundant home crowd so this is no easy task for the Gosford side and they haven't won here since November 2009.
Victory have been potent in attack all season with Thompson & Rojas carving out chances at will in most games. Marcos Flores & Gui Finkler are starting to find some touch in midfield and I really can't find enough superlatives to describe the work of Adama Traore at left back. He has been sensational all season and was just immense last week against Sydney. He has one hell of an engine and his overlapping runs down the left wing in attack are going to wear a lot of teams down this season. He just keeps coming similar to Aziz Behich of Melbourne Heart but he is a slightly more robust unit.
Central Coast still don't really have a truly reconised Central Striker but Daniel Macbreen is doing an amazing job at present and the midfield trio of Hutchinson, McGlinchey & Rogic are servicing him well ably supported by their 2 overlapping fullbacks Josh Rose and Pedg Bojic. They are a team in the true sense of the word and very well drilled by coach Graham Arnold. Victory don't have the same cohesion and team spirit as their opposition and will need all the individual flair and guile of Flores, Finkler & Torres to get them over the line here.
Tip;
I'm finding it really hard to come to a conclusion on just who will win this game. It really could go either way with history no real help and the current form of both is hard to fault. I'm going for a draw and it should be an entertaining one.
Bet Advice;
If you must then take comfort in the fact that Melbourne Victory are statistically good value for a home team. The price for a draw and away win here don't cut the mustard so the home team it is!.
Newcastle Jets $1.82
Draw $3.40
Wellington Phoenix $4.25
History;
16 Matches- Newcastle 4 wins, Wellington 11 wins with only 1 draw. Last result this fixture 0-1.
Wellington have won 4 of the last 5 matches between the 2 teams though 4 of them have been in NZ.
Overall this fixture 3 wins a piece. Draws are indeed a rarity between these two.
Squad Changes;
Bernardo Robeira, Sam Galloway & Marco Jesic are available for Newcastle selection but Jacob Pepper & Taylor Regan are unavailable due to suspension.
Wellington Phoenix have Roicardo Clarke available for this one with no omissions but have several players returning from national duty for New Zealand after a midweek match in China.
Preview;
Newcastle come into this game flying high, 3rd on the table with 2 wins from their last 3 matches. They are equal top scorers in the League but have conceded quite a few more than the 2 teams above them (10 compared to 4). Emile Heskey has been sensational thus far netting 5 goals with fellow Striker Ryan Griffiths alo thriving without the burden of having to shoulder the load up front. Craig Goodwin has been exceptional at left back since signing from Melbourne Heart and James Virgili has been a revelation wide on the right. With experienced campaigners Jobe Wheelhouse and Ruben Zadkovich shoring up the midfield the attacking trio are getting well and truly enough service to be effective at present.
Wellington in contrast come to this fixture in lamentable form losing 3 on the trot though it was certainly no disgrace to go down to the high flying Mariners by 1 goal even if they were at home. Strange that fixture is always a poor one for them but conversely this is nearly always a good one. Being essentially poor travellers they will come to Newastle with the knowledge that this is a good matchup for them and they certainly have the Personel to do enough damage if they can find their best form. The likes of Ifill, Huysegems and Jeremy Brockie up front spell danger to a Newcastle squad that could be complacent. Always solid at the back with Ben Sigmund & Andrew Durante calling the shots it will be up to the midfield to ensure enough supply to their potent attack if they hope to come away with the spoils in this one. That could be a problem as they do seem a bit light on in regard to experience and quality though Louis Fenton did impress early on this season.
Tip;
Though Newcastle have a poor record against Wellington overall they couldn't have met them at a better time this season. They are ticking along nicely and there is a concern that fatigue might set in from some of the Nzers who played in China during the week. Heskey is a key figure for them now and they are a far better side all round this season compared to the last couple. Hard to believe they won't nake the finals this season and they are normally a very strong unit at home and they should just about get away with this one.
Bet Advice;
Once again a dilemma with Wellington being massively underrated in the market and home team. Newcastle absolutely no value at all. Bet Wellington at value odds and hope they hit their straps, and for Newcastle to have an off day. The Newcastle defence has been porous so if Phoenix can hold firm, you never know what might happen.
No comments:
Post a Comment