A-League Round 21

A much abbreviated summary this week due to time restrictions. On paper the results look fairly predictable as indicated by betting odds. I'd be surprised if everything runs to the script as is so often the case in this League.

Melbourne Heart v Gold Coast United AAMI Park 7:00 PM, Fri 17 Feb 2012


Melbourne Heart 1.62
Draw 3.65
Gold Coast United 5.25

Melbourne Heart have their Captain back for this after an extensive absence and they haven't won a game without him this year. Vice Captain Matt Thompson possibly returns too.
Gold Coast though are absolutely decimated with injury, reportedly 13 of their squad unavailable for selection and even their captain is suspended. A 17 year old made captain and who is yet to play at this level. Ridiculous!
Both teams are hopelessly out of form for this one but Heart have the incentive of getting a finals campaign back on track. They really should win this one but the pressure is on them and nothing much is going to be expected of their opposition, which could be dangerous. Barring complacency though Heart should come up trumps.

Long Term Betting Strategy- Gold Coast away are good value for an away team and the Heart have to be layed at their odds on quote.



Central Coast Mariners v Wellington Phoenix Bluetongue Stadium 1 4:30 PM, Sat 18 Feb 2012

Central Coast Mariners 1.90
Draw 3.25
Wellington Phoenix 4.10 

Central Coast meet a somewhat depleted Wellington Phoenix team here who have 2 of their regular back four missing. Manny Muscat returns at right back though which is a bonus. Central Coast have an addition to their offensive ranks in the shape of Englishman John Sutton.  Young Tomas Rogic really made his mark last week despite the loss to Melbourne Victory and Central Coast could well be rebuilding as potent a strike force as they had before Matt Simons' departure. They won't have gelled together yet though and Wellington have proven numerous times this season that they are a force to be reckoned with. They have beaten Central Coast twice at Gosford from 5 matches overall.
I'm going for a draw here at the value.

Average Goals this fixture- 1.8

Long Term Betting Strategy- Lay Central Coast and back Wellington who are the Value away team.

Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory 6:45 PM, Sat 18 Feb 2012

Brisbane Roar 1.70
Draw 3.45
Melbourne Victory 5.00

Brisbane are looking back to their Championship winning best having defeated the 2 teams placed above them on the table 2-0 in consecutive weeks. They annihilated a woeful Melbourne Victory here on New Years Eve 2011.
Despite that Victory do actually have a better record in this fixture 5 wins to 3, and they probably played their best match of the season last week in downing the ladder leaders. They will come to Brisbane with their tails up, and with  Carlos Hernandez back in form and favour, they certainly look a more appealing prospect for value bettors.
Brisbane might just hold too many aces though and are still my pick. They may not get beaten again this season, or at least in the run up to the finals.

Average goals this fixture- 2

Long Term Betting Strategy- Lay Brisbane and back Melbourne Victory who are in fact an amazing price and will be keen to back themselves I'd imagine!




Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets nib Stadium 9:00 PM, Sat 18 Feb 2012

Perth Glory 1.80
Draw 3.40
Newcastle Jets 4.25

Both sides in pretty good form and now well and truly in finals contention.
Perth have been scintillating at home their past 3 matches scoring 11 and only conceding 3.
They had a bit of a reality check last week against a much improved Sydney team but they should return to their best here barring complacency. No easy task  however to knock over a Newcastle team who have strung 3 wins in a row together and 2 of them have been on the road. They are also scoring plenty of goals, averaging 3 in those last three matches. This is a tougher ask though travelling West and a draw would be a good result. I slightly favour Perth but also see a draw as very realistic.

Average Goals this fixture- 3

Long Term Betting Strategy- Lay Perth Glory and back Newcastle Jets at the value 'away' price.


Adelaide United v Sydney FC Hindmarsh Stadium 2012- Sun 19 Feb 2012

Adelaide United 2.40
Draw 3.25
Sydney FC 2.80

Adelaide have been disappointing at home this season and will be backing up for their 3rd game in 7 days here after a Thursday night AFC game against Indonesian side Persipura Jayapura. They were very fortunate to win against Gold Coast last Sunday and are going to have to find better form than that to win this encounter . They will also have to call on energy reserves too and any lingering tiredness from Thursday night should be exploited by a likely resilient Sydney outfit.
Sydney were tremendous last week and will be keen to cement a place in the top 6 here. Brett Emerton impressive in his return, scoring against Perth in that last match. They might have one or 2 other players returning to the fray for this one.
I do fancy Sydney to win this one.

Average Goals this fixture- 3.1

Long Term Betting Strategy- Back Adelaide who are good enough value for a home team.