Prices quoted are Unitab odds as at 6.45pm Wednesday 8/02/12
Melbourne Victory v Central Coast Mariners AAMI Park 2012-02-10T09:00:00
1 7:00 PM, Fri 10 Feb 2012
Melbourne Victory 2.85
Draw 3.25
Central Coast Mariners 2.40
Head to Head;
All Time- Melbourne Victory 8, Central Coast 7, Draws 3.
This Fixture- Melbourne Victory 3, Central Coast 3, Draws 3
This Season- Central Coast Mariners 2 Melbourne Victory 0 (4/01/12)
Central Coast Mariners 0 Melbourne Victory 0 (12/11/11)
Form Guide;
Melbourne Victory are unbeaten at home this season from 11 games but have won only 3 of them with 8 draws. They have been ahead in their last 3 home matches but failed to win. In fact at home this season they haven't managed to win a second half in regards to outscoring their opponents.
In reality though their home form is far superior to their away form and the old maxim that a home crowd is worth a goal certainly rings true for them.
Central Coast come into this game after losing their first game in 16 matches. They lead the competition by 7 points and have a game in hand (Gold Coast).
Their away form this season is without peer winning 7 of 9 and they have won their last 7.
They had the better of the second half in their last match against Brisbane Roar but failed to trouble the scorer. That was their first game in 14 days due to their abandoned match the week prior, and it appears the break didn't assist them going on their first half performance.
Injuries/Replacements;
Melbourne Victory are likely to play new Spanish Defender Ubay Luzardo if Captain Adrian Leijer succumbs to a groin problem. Grand Brebner is also missing with an ankle problem which could see him miss up to 4 games. This necessitates a change to the midfield where youngster Jimmy Jeggo is tipped to make his debut. He has reportedly been impressive in a midfield role as Captain of the Youth team.
Central Coast also have significant injury concerns with Pedj Boic and Troy Hearfield unavailable for this one. The former in particular will be sorely missed for his lung busting overlapping runs from right full back. He has been very influential in a number of games for the Mariners this season.
* Add to that the fact that Central Coast are still without 3 key youngsters on Olyroos duty and the loss of Matt Simon some weeks ago and this is almost a 2nd team that is being fielded. They still have the same solid Centre Back pairing of Zwaanswijk & Wilkinson, and the impressive Michael McGlinchey in midfield, but that's about it in terms of familiarity.
Prediction;
I couldn't possibly tip Melbourne Victory to win the way they are playing. To say they are below par would be an understatement. If they do happen to lead the match they are likely to cough up a goal late, and if they don't concede, or have a man sent off they generally defend 'like there's no tomorrow'. Go figure!
They do perhaps meet Central Coast at an opportune time. The Mariners have a couple of injury concerns, *a lot of personell changes of late and perhaps some self doubt could creep in now that their winning run has come to an end. We have seen that happen to 2 of the better teams this season in Brisbane Roar and Melbourne Heart.
But it is just as likely that the ladder leaders will show exactly why they are 'top of the pile' and return to something like their best with only the 6 days between games this time.
I think they will return to the winners circle here but probably not by more than 1 goal.
* A late change of mind here remembering the fact that the 3 youngsters are also absent for Central Coast- I'm tipping a draw but have to admit that this is a winnable match for Melbourne Victory and possibly their last chance of the season to make an impression on the top 6. A draw just won't do in terms of League standing and team confidence. Another one would make it 11 for the season and they just could 'draw' themselves out of finals contention on that count alone
Bet Advice;
Long term betting strategy dictates that you back the home team here at odds of $2.85+. Conversely $2.40 about an away team isn't nearly enough.
Although a draw looks a distinct possibility for this match for some reason betting agencies never offer the $4 odds that are required, unless one of the teams are long odds on.
Central Coast to win by 1 goal and worth considering that more than 2.5 goals in this match is twice as likely than under 2.5 goals historically.
*That price for the home team looks a little more enticing now though I still think a draw is the most likely result.
Newcastle
Jets v Melbourne Heart 11/2 Ausgrid Stadium 4:30 PM, Sat 11 Feb 2012
Newcastle Jets 2.20
Draw 3.35
Melbourne Heart
3.05
Head To Head;
All Time- Newcastle 2, Heart 2, Draws 1
This Fixture- Newcastle 1, Heart 1, Draw 1
This Season- Heart 3- Newcastle 0 (12/11/11)
Newcastle 3- Heart 2 (8/10/11)
Form Guide;
Newcastle come into this off the back of 2 very rare away wins and the only time they have won 2 games 'on the bounce' this season. They have only lost 2 of their last 8 matches and both have been by a solitary goal. The system GaryVan Egmond insisted on developing appears to be taking root.
Very surprising to see them put 3 goals on Sydney FC last week in the first 45 minutes. That eventually proved to be a winning lead but there were anxious moments in the second half with Sydney clawing 2 goals back (and opportunies squandered after that too) before Newcastle gained the upper hand with a couple of clinical finishes. Not a completely convincing performance despite the scoreline, but nevertheless a confidence builder to make a good fist of a finals push until the end of the season.
They are normally very hard to beat at home and have won 5, lost 3 and drawn 1 of their 9 matches at Ausgrid Stadum this year. The 3 losses have all been by 1 goal.
Melbourne Heart have become the enigma of this years competition. Riding high 8 games ago of the back of 5 consecutive wins, they have failed to win in their last 7 and only scored 6 goals in the process. They completely dominated the Mariners a month ago but lost in the last few minutes to a sucker punch. They were then good value for a draw against Brisbane and last week had the better of the the match in the local Derby but failed to convert 1 or 2 guilt edged chances albeit the Victory goalkeeper had a very solid match.
They are yet to win a match without Captain Fred this season and he will be absent again for this one.
The big bonus for them last week was the amazing debutante performance of Craig Goodwin. He deserves all the plaudits that have been thrown his way especially considering the massive hole he had to fill in the absence of Aziz Behich. The left fullback position is pivotal to Hearts' formation it seems and they have lost nothing with the introduction of this bloke.
Injuries/Replacements;
Newcastle are virtually at full strength here despite losing Ben Kantarovski to the Olyroos. His absence certainly posed no problems for them last week.
Conversely Melbourne Heart are nowhere near full strength. Captain Fred and vice captain Matt Thompson are still missing and that is a lot of influence to lose.
They also have 3 players with the Olyroo squad though I'm not sure the affect was dramatic in the last performance against their cross town rival.
The bonus from that match was the game time given to the likes of Shroj, Colossimo and Reid. They should strip fitter for this match and between them they have immense experience, which goes some way to replacing that lost through the absence of Fred & Thompson.
Some talk of Kristian Sarkies missing this one. His dead ball skills could be missed if he is absent.
Brazilian Maycon coming in though could be beneficial. He has had precious little game time this season but has been effective in the past coming off the bench.
Prediction;
Hard to tip against a Newcastle side who seem to be coming good at the right time and they should be full of confidence for this clash.
Interesting to see the intense passion between fans and Players last week at the SFS after they scored 1 or 2 of their goals. Emotions obviously run deep at the club which can only be a positive for them in their current form. They meet their opposition at an opportune time, still vulnerable with a disjointed line up and facing a road trip that many teams find too daunting.
Melbourne Heart need to play with a lot more intensity than they did in their last away match in Wellington, a similarly fatal road trip for most teams.
Without Fred (and Thompson) it is hard to see them coming away with 3 points here but if they happen to regain their scoring touch in this game there is no doubt they will be competitive. Just not sure this is the game where they can turn their fortunes around.
I'm tipping Newcastle to just have too much momentum and intensity for Heart here.
Bet Advice;
Long term betting strategy dictates that $2.20 is good enough odds to take on Newcastle in a Home game context. If you can still get that it would be a bonus.
Melbourne Heart aren't good value for an away team though they are drifting to somewhere near it with some betting agencies. Doubtful they will get to the $3.75 required though.
Jeremy Brockie back in scoring form and is now the teams top scorer with a great return of 8 goals considering he is ostensibly a wide player. He just might be worth an investment as 1st goal scorer. He had scored all his goals at home until last week and now back to his favoured stomping ground he could really run amok!
Sydney FC v Perth Glory 11/2 Sydney Football
Stadium 6:45 PM, Sat 11 Feb 2012
Sydney FC 2.30
Draw 3.25
Perth Glory 2.95
Head to Head;
All Time- Sydney 9, Perth 4, Draws 7
This Fixture- Sydney 4, Perth 2, Draws 2
This Season- Sydney 1 Perth 1 (18/01 Campelltown)
Perth 0 Sydney 1 (12/11/11)
Form Guide;
Sydney suffered their worst defeat of the season last week without doubt. Losing by 3 goals at home as favourite will have done nothing whatsoever for team morale. They have only won 1 of their last 9 matches and conceded 22 goals in the process.They now have the 2nd worst home record in the League with only Adelaide more profiligate in defence (only 1 more).
Possibly more concerning is their Home form at the SFS this season, whereby they have conspired to lose 5 of 9 matches with 2 draws. And the 2 wins have been against Cellar Dwellars Gold Coast both by a solitary goal.
In complete contrast Perth come into this clash with oodles of confidence off the back of 8 unbeaten games including 5 wins. Incredibly they have scored 11 goals in their last 2 outings and only conceded once. Form doesn't come much hotter than that! They were irrepressible last Sunday against Gold Coast and could quite easily have added to an impressive 4-0 scoreline. They have won 3 of their last 4 Away matches which can only add to the positivity for this clash.
Injuries/Replacements;
Sydney have lost right full back Sebastain Ryall to the Olyroos and have lost key Striker Mark Bridge for this one. That won't help an attacking lineup that is struggling to match what the oppositon can conjure up in recent times.
Jamie Coyne comes in for Ryall.
Brett Emerton returning is a big bonus though. His energy was missed against Newcastle and he should ensure that Sydney will at least keep going to the bitter end in this one.
I'd expect young Winger Joel Chianese to get more game time in this one. He was pretty impressive in his little cameo debut last week, adding some pace and penetration on the left. It's a bit much to ask in expecting him to be a game breaker here though.
Perth are at full strengh and actually have more players at their disposal than last week with a couple returning from injuries.
Prediction;
I just can't look past Perth winning this and rate them the best bet of the round. There are heaps of positives for them and far too many negatives for the home team in this one.
If Sydney can turn their loss around from last week it is possible they could get something out of the game but on current form their is just no comparison between these 2.
Bet Advice;
Once again though long term betting strategy dictates that you back Sydney here at the reasonable home team odds. Head to Head history supports them too but I can't recommend backing them and good luck if you do!
Perth aren't great odds for an away team but on current form that quote looks generous.
Liam Miller for Perth looks the best value bet for first goal scorer @ $15. He did so last week and is one of the more creative players in their side.
Wellington Phoenix v Brisbane Roar 12/2 Westpac
Stadium 2:00 PM, Sun 12 Feb 2012
Wellington Phoenix
2.55
Draw 3.35
Brisbane Roar 2.55
Head To Head;
All Time- Wellington 2, Brisbane 8, Draws 2.
This Fixture- Wellington 2, Brisbane 2, Draws 2
This Season- Wellington 2 Brisbane 0 (14/12/11)
Brisbane 1 Wellington 1 (13/11/11)
Form Guide;
Wellington probably face their sternest test this season but do so off a string of 4 consecutive wins and a new found ability to win Away from home (3 in a row). At Home they are always that little bit more adventurous and often respond to their crowds urgings particularly in second halfs. At home this season they have played 10, won 6, Lost 3 and drawn only 1. In that time they have scored 22 goals, averaging 2 goals per game, against a return of only 7 goals away from home. They have scored 11 goals in their last 6 games and conceded only 4.
Brisbane travel across the Tasman off one of their best wins of the season, toppling the ladder leaders and ending their 15 match unbeaten streak. They played with stunning intensity in the first stanza there, and whilst conceding most of the possession in the second half they produced a reslilient defensive performance which should only add to the confidence today. That was actually their first away win in 8 games and only their 3rd win from their past 12 performances.
Injuries/Replacements;
Wellington have to do without Manny Muscat today who is suspended. He has been an important player for them this season, with his overlapping runs from right back and determination in defence. Probably one of, if not the most improved players in the A-League and his presence would have been precious today, linking with the dangerous Ifill on the right in attack and preventing attacking raids from the left in the shape of Broich and the young Fitzgerald. Vince
Lia comes in for him but it's unlikely he can provide Wellington with quite the same potency in an attacking sense.
Brisbane couldn't be in better shape personnel wise. Broich and Henrique should be firing on all cylinders now and just about every player in their squad is available for selection. Even Mitch Nicholls comes back from Olyroo duty due to an international suspension, and he too might get some game time.
Prediction;
A very difficult task to separate these 2 teams, who are both probably in peak form right now. It may well come down to who scores first in reality. If It's Wellington then the home team might be too good as they will look to counter attack from there on in and they do finish off their matches very well in the 2nd half at home. If it's Brisbane though I think they can go and win the match because the game will open up and they can pick off Wellington again given those circumstances. Apparently Ricky Herbert is looking to starve Brisbane of possession in this game to stem their attacking threat. How well they do that will probably decide the outcome.
I'm tipping Brisbane to score first and go on to win an entertaining match but this one could go either way. The loss of Muscat could be crucial and a Brisbane team at full strength will have no excuse for not coming away with the 3 points. This clash rarely produces a draw so I'm going to plump for Brisbane on that basis. There is a lot at stake though, with the winner a very realistic chance of reeling in the League Leaders in the coming weeks. On that score you just wonder whether there will be a winning outcome. Both teams could just cancel each other out being at the top of their respective games.
Bet Advice;
Long term betting strategy once again dictates that you back the home team here, who in actual fact are great value, being in such great form, and possibly the most potent team in the Competition on thier own turf . That same advice has already been successful 3/3 times this round so should be taken seriously regardless of where your sentiments lie. And a draw historically appears unlikley which improves the percentages for you slightly.
Either side winning by 1 goal could be a good option and the likes of Mohammed Adnan for Brisbane (free kick taker and good in the air) and Tim Brown (breaking from midfield and also good in the air) are probably the best value bets to be first scorer.
Gold Coast
United v Adelaide United 12/2 4:30 PM, Sun 12 Feb 2012
Gold Coast United 2.15
Draw 3.25
Adelaide United 3.20
Head To Head;
All Time- Gold Coast 3, Adelaide 2, Draws 4
This Fixture- Draws 3 (only games played in Qld) 0-0, 0-0, 1-1.
This Season- Adelaide 0 Gold Coast 3 (16/12/11)
Adelaide 2 Gold Coast 1 (11/11/11)
Form Guide;
Both sides are really struggling for form coming into this clash.
Gold Coast probably put in their worst performance last week against an impressive Perth side who really could have won a lot easier than even the 4-0 scoreline suggested.
Prior to that the Queenslanders did well to get out of jail in the final moments against Melbourne Victory in Hobart but it seems it did nothing for the morale of the team after last weeks haemorrhage.
It is now 8 matches since they won a game but on the positive side they have only twice at home this season, not too bad for a side languishing at the foot of the table.
Adelaide are not faring much better of late losing 3 of their last 4 matches and it is now 7 matches since they last won. Perhaps significantly though their away form is much better than their home form. They have only lost one of their last 7 and that was a very frustrating and narrow 3-2 defeat to the Central Coast where they led at half time and were clearly the best side at that point. Possibly a worry that they have only won 1 of those last 7 with 5 draws but this is possibly their best chance for a while of reaping a 3 point away game dividend.
Injuries/Replacements;
Gold Coast are decimated with injuries coming into this clash with a number of key players likely to miss the game or at least have bit parts in it. James Brown deinitely out, Rigters is doubtful and so is their key midfielder Jungschlager. Rozic in defence might be a casualty also.
I'm not aware of any major problems in the Adelaide camp so they get every chance here to exploit a Gold Coast team down on Personnel and confidence.
Prediction;
History certainly says a draw but I'm thinking that Gold Coast have too many key players out and/or struggling for fitness. Adelaide need to find some form and could well do so with the added lure of an Asian Champions League campaign luming if they can beat an Indonesian side on Thursday. That should give them added motivation for this one. If they can't do the job here in the shape of 3 points, then their top 6 aspirations are dead and buried. They have a very decent player roster and only need to rise to the occasion here.
Bet Advice;
Conversely Gold Coast are the long term betting strategy candidates being the price they are as a home team. Personally I think the best they can manage is a draw but that is why they are at generous odds in reality.
Sergio Van Dyke possibly the best option to score first for Adelaide. He is reasonably prolific, takes penalties and occasionally bursts the net with a fierce free kick. Only $5.50 on offer but that is good enough for me.
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