Sunday, February 26, 2012

Berisha breaking new ground!



When the Australian A-League player awards are conducted later this season it is very likely that Brisbane Roars' Besart Berisha will 'scoop the pool' with at least 3 accolades bestowed upon him.
I'm not quite sure what the categories are, but right now he would appear to be a 'shoe in' for 3 awards that have been presented in the past;

a) Top Goalscorer
b) Best Player
c) Best Import

With 17 goals this season from 23 A-League matches at an average of 0.77 goals per game  one could be forgiven for thinking that Besart is typical of the single minded Striker who solely benefits from industrious team mates, and merely finishes off their good work at the pointy end of attacks.

But in reality nothing could be further from the truth. Anybody that thinks otherwise really needs to have a good look at last nights Round 23 clash against Perth Glory (in Perth) as just one example.
Not only did he slot home 2, and make 1 of the 3 goals Brisbane Roar scored, his true worth really stood out from the 65th minute mark, directly after his strike partner Henrique was sent from the field.
From that point on Berisha (I'm assuming) took it upon himself to largely relinquish his central striker role, freeing himself up to stem attacking raids deep inside his teams defensive 3rd of the pitch, secondary only to playing a quite Masterful central midfield role, controlling a lot of the possession, pretty much negating any hope Perth might have had of clawing their way back into the match.
It really was a joy to watch as this kind of work rate and commitment to the team cause, so often lacking in the modern game. Having said that I'm not even sure that his coach even approved of the kind of positional 'switcheroo' that Berisha employed last night. But there is absolutely no doubt  that Roar Supremo Ange Postecoglou appreciates just what an asset the Albanian is to his team, that kind of 'passion in spades' would have been largely in the forefront of his thinking before rewarding him a further 2 year contract, less than a month ago. And what a coup that might well prove to be, because at the end to the upcoming Asian Champions League in November, Berisha could be the most sought after player in the region, at least on the form he is displaying at present. The A-League scoring record of 19 goals set by Shane Smeltz now seems well and truly a formality for him to overtake, and with 6 goals in his past 4 games, it appears that he will do so sooner rather than later. There are 6 games left for Brisbane Roar in the regular season, possibly 3 or 4 in the Final series, and an Asian Champions League campaign to come, so just how many more he can add is really anybody's guess.

You could also be forgiven for thinking that everything has been plain sailing for the humble and likeable Albanian this season. Once again though that really isn't the case.
After scoring an impressive 9 goals from his first 8 games in the A-League (including 4 in one game) culminating with 2 in the Roars' 36 game record breaking match against Perth in round 8, the goals dried up for him. It was bad enough that his team stumbled to an untenable 5 losses in a row thereafter, but for Berisha it would be another 4 matches before he would break the drought.

And it couldn't have come at a better time, possibly one of the most memorable goals ever in the A-League, not on the score of quality, but for sheer timing and almost immediate controversy, it won't be forgotten easily. It came at home against Sydney in Round 17. All seemed lost for the Roar who trailed 1-0 for the majority of the match until Sayed Mohamed Adnan scored a spectacular equalising free kick deep into injury time. A minute or so later Brisbane staged another attack down the left with Shane Steffanuto supplying a telling cross to an unmarked Mitch Nichols who cleverly first touched the ball, at speed, into the six yard box where Berisha was waiting, his superb reflexes coming to the fore, finishing off a half chance with great aplomb.



What happened shortly thereafter at the final whistle very much overshadowed what could well have been a glorious moment for the Albanian. Rather than soak up the adulation of scoring (and breaking the drought) a dramatic winner Berishas' mind was elsewhere, seeking to settle an even bigger score with an opposition player who had clearly overstepped the boundaries of fair play in his opinion. Whilst taking your shirt off and ushering an opponent to the tunnel for a stoush is hardly admirable at the end of a match, it does perhaps give us a telling insight into him as a player, and an individual.

He won't take a backward step, wears his heart on his sleeve, and has a strong sense of justice. He clearly has little time for self adulation and has commented several times this season on how much the team means to him, and how much he appreciates the players around him.

Add those elements to the his physical attributes- Athleticism, Strength, Stamina, Positional versatility, Acceleration in the penalty box and clnical finishing, and you begin to realise that Besart is just about the complete package, a Managers' dream if you like!


I for one am going to enjoy watching that package revealing even more by seasons end, whether it be in the A-League or the Asian Champions League.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Gold Coast vs Central Coast Mariners (rescheduled match) 22/02

Gold Coast United $5.50
Draw $3.80
Central Coast Mariners $1.58 

Skilled Park Stadium 7.05p.m Wed. 22/02/12


History and Stats;

9 games between these 2 with Central Coast having their noses in front winning 3 to Gold Coasts' 2 with 4 draws.

The last 2 meetings have produced 2 draws only 2 goals and notable they have both been at Gosford and Central Coast have been massive favourites both times. This is their 3rd meeting this season.

In their last meeting here Central Coast were the victors 3-1in February 2011.

Average goals scored in this fixture- 2.33


Current Form;

It has been a tumultuous week to say the least for the team from the Glitter strip. No more Miron Bleiberg as coach and it is hard to gauge just how much respect he did have from the playing group.
Their performance last week against Heart, whilst admirable, lacked any real cohesion and they never really looked as though they could win the game.
Back at home they are a better proposition ,with one or 2 regulars back but the confidence would stillhave to be at an all time low and spectator attendance for this one could very well be too.

Central Coast are still missing a couple of their good young players (especially goalkeeper Matt Ryan) but they appear to be back to something like their best judging on the win against Wellington Phoenix last week. They have more options in attack then they did a week or so ago, and their back 4 were back to keeping a clean sheet for the first time in a while in that game, so overall they should approach this game with a lot of confidence.

Prediction;

Impossible to tip against Central Coast who are back in from and are likely to up their performance level considering that a win here just about ensures them the A-League top spot this year.
Gold Coast are a bit of a bogey side for them though and have one or 2 notable absentees returning from injury, and have a young side with very little to lose. Add to that a high probablility of rain and late thunderstorms and just maybe things could be a little trickier than it might appear on paper.
I have to go with the Mariners though who are a far better team this year, have had a low key preparation compared to their opposition, and should back up well from the weekend given the work ethic of their coach Graham Arnold and their recent ordinary showing off a 2 week break. I'd expect a spirited effort from the home side but class and form should prevail here by possibly a 2 goal margin.

Betting Strategy;

Once again long term betting strategy dictates that you back the home team here at a very inflated price. A draw could possibly get to the required $4+ value too. But given the events of this week and the injury ravaged state of this Gold Coast outfit I couldn't recommend taking either. Central Coast by at least a goal, and although no price is yet available CC defender Patrick Zwaanswijk is normally around the $20 mark for first goalscorer. That is always value considering that he takes free kicks and often scores from headers at corner kicks. He already has 6 goals to his name this season which is an incredible return for a centre back.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

A-League Round 21

A much abbreviated summary this week due to time restrictions. On paper the results look fairly predictable as indicated by betting odds. I'd be surprised if everything runs to the script as is so often the case in this League.

Melbourne Heart v Gold Coast United AAMI Park 7:00 PM, Fri 17 Feb 2012


Melbourne Heart 1.62
Draw 3.65
Gold Coast United 5.25


Melbourne Heart have their Captain back for this after an extensive absence and they haven't won a game without him this year. Vice Captain Matt Thompson possibly returns too.
Gold Coast though are absolutely decimated with injury, reportedly 13 of their squad unavailable for selection and even their captain is suspended. A 17 year old made captain and who is yet to play at this level. Ridiculous!
Both teams are hopelessly out of form for this one but Heart have the incentive of getting a finals campaign back on track. They really should win this one but the pressure is on them and nothing much is going to be expected of their opposition, which could be dangerous. Barring complacency though Heart should come up trumps.

Long Term Betting Strategy- Gold Coast away are good value for an away team and the Heart have to be layed at their odds on quote.



Central Coast Mariners v Wellington Phoenix Bluetongue Stadium 1 4:30 PM, Sat 18 Feb 2012

Central Coast Mariners 1.90
Draw 3.25
Wellington Phoenix 4.10 


Central Coast meet a somewhat depleted Wellington Phoenix team here who have 2 of their regular back four missing. Manny Muscat returns at right back though which is a bonus. Central Coast have an addition to their offensive ranks in the shape of Englishman John Sutton.  Young Tomas Rogic really made his mark last week despite the loss to Melbourne Victory and Central Coast could well be rebuilding as potent a strike force as they had before Matt Simons' departure. They won't have gelled together yet though and Wellington have proven numerous times this season that they are a force to be reckoned with. They have beaten Central Coast twice at Gosford from 5 matches overall.
I'm going for a draw here at the value.

Average Goals this fixture- 1.8

Long Term Betting Strategy- Lay Central Coast and back Wellington who are the Value away team.

Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory 6:45 PM, Sat 18 Feb 2012

Brisbane Roar 1.70
Draw 3.45
Melbourne Victory 5.00


Brisbane are looking back to their Championship winning best having defeated the 2 teams placed above them on the table 2-0 in consecutive weeks. They annihilated a woeful Melbourne Victory here on New Years Eve 2011.
Despite that Victory do actually have a better record in this fixture 5 wins to 3, and they probably played their best match of the season last week in downing the ladder leaders. They will come to Brisbane with their tails up, and with  Carlos Hernandez back in form and favour, they certainly look a more appealing prospect for value bettors.
Brisbane might just hold too many aces though and are still my pick. They may not get beaten again this season, or at least in the run up to the finals.

Average goals this fixture- 2

Long Term Betting Strategy- Lay Brisbane and back Melbourne Victory who are in fact an amazing price and will be keen to back themselves I'd imagine!




Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets nib Stadium 9:00 PM, Sat 18 Feb 2012

Perth Glory 1.80
Draw 3.40
Newcastle Jets 4.25


Both sides in pretty good form and now well and truly in finals contention.
Perth have been scintillating at home their past 3 matches scoring 11 and only conceding 3.
They had a bit of a reality check last week against a much improved Sydney team but they should return to their best here barring complacency. No easy task  however to knock over a Newcastle team who have strung 3 wins in a row together and 2 of them have been on the road. They are also scoring plenty of goals, averaging 3 in those last three matches. This is a tougher ask though travelling West and a draw would be a good result. I slightly favour Perth but also see a draw as very realistic.

Average Goals this fixture- 3

Long Term Betting Strategy- Lay Perth Glory and back Newcastle Jets at the value 'away' price.


Adelaide United v Sydney FC Hindmarsh Stadium 2012- Sun 19 Feb 2012

Adelaide United 2.40
Draw 3.25
Sydney FC 2.80


Adelaide have been disappointing at home this season and will be backing up for their 3rd game in 7 days here after a Thursday night AFC game against Indonesian side Persipura Jayapura. They were very fortunate to win against Gold Coast last Sunday and are going to have to find better form than that to win this encounter . They will also have to call on energy reserves too and any lingering tiredness from Thursday night should be exploited by a likely resilient Sydney outfit.
Sydney were tremendous last week and will be keen to cement a place in the top 6 here. Brett Emerton impressive in his return, scoring against Perth in that last match. They might have one or 2 other players returning to the fray for this one.
I do fancy Sydney to win this one.

Average Goals this fixture- 3.1

Long Term Betting Strategy- Back Adelaide who are good enough value for a home team.